远程教育新生学习效果与毕业率的关系模型构建  

Construction of Relationship Model between Distance Education Freshmen’s learning Effect and Graduation Rate

作　　者：孙艳 郑玲 洪宣容 Sun Yan;Zheng Ling;Hong Xuanrong(Open University of Yibin,Yibin 644000)

机构地区：[1]宜宾开放大学,四川宜宾644000

出　　处：《陕西开放大学学报》2024年第2期18-23,共6页Journal of The Open University of ShaanXi

基　　金：四川开放大学研究中心2021—2022年度重点科研课题“基于大数据的学习者在线学习行为与学习效果分析研究”(项目编号:KTZXJYXXXTYGL2021004Z)。

摘　　要：远程教育领域所积累的海量数据,为探索教学规律提供契机。处于关键期的新生,其学习效果与毕业率间的关系研究,为远程教育教学实践提供有力支撑。本研究选取宜宾开放大学2019年春期-2020年春期三届新生4162人为样本,经过数据预处理,运用相关性分析和二次回归分析构建关系模型,旨在通过新生课程合格率预测按期毕业率。结果表明,新生课程合格率的提升可显著增强按期毕业的可能性,而首期课程合格率的降低导致延期毕业比例上升,增加教学管理难度。此外,延长毕业时间,将增加学习者流失风险。因此,建议加强新生的学习适应性教育,构建科学的入学教育模式,以提升学习效果和按期毕业率。The massive data accumulated in the field of distance education provides opportunities to explore the laws of teaching.In the critical period,the study of the relationship between the learning effect and the graduation rate provides a strong support for the practice of long-range education and teaching.This study selected 4,162 new students in the spring of Open University of Yibin in the spring of 2019 to the spring of 2020.After data pre-processing,the use of correlation analysis and secondary regression analysis and construction relationship model is designed to predict the graduation rate on time through the pass rate of the new course.The results show that the increase in the qualification rate of freshmen’s curriculum can significantly increase the possibility of graduation on schedule,and the decrease in the pass rate of the first course has led to an increase in the proportion of postponed graduation and increasing the difficulty of teaching management.In addition,extending graduation time will increase the risk of learners’loss.Therefore,it is recommended to strengthen the learning adaptive education of the new students and build a scientific education model to improve the learning effect and graduation rate on time.

关 键 词：远程教育 新生 学习效果 毕业率 按期毕业 关系模型 

分 类 号：G724.82[文化科学—成人教育学]