基于多因素的电力需求预测方法研究  

Research on the Forecasting Method of Power Demand Based on Multiple Factors

作　　者：徐凌燕 刘芮瑶 XU Lingyan;LIU Ruiyao(Langfang Power Supply Company,State Grid Jibei Electric Power Co.,Ltd.,Langfang,Hebei Province,065000 China;University of Nottingham Ningbo China,Ningbo,Zhejiang Province,315154 China)

机构地区：[1]国网冀北电力有限公司廊坊供电公司,河北廊坊065000 [2]宁波诺丁汉大学,浙江宁波315154

出　　处：《科技资讯》2024年第7期68-71,共4页Science & Technology Information

摘　　要：随着社会经济的不断发展,经济结构的不断调整,电力需求受经济发展的影响也在不断加剧。电力供需形势预测是电力市场营销、电力系统规划和电力公司经济决策的重要参考依据,越来越受到电力企业的重视。准确的电力供需形势预测成为制定电力规划的重要基础性工作,也是保持国民经济健康可持续发展的需要。通过对电力供需形势影响因素的分析,横向对比多种电力供需形势预测方法,提出基于趋势外推法的电力需求预测方法。以某地区电网为例,验证了所提方法的有效性。With the continuous development of social economy and the constant adjustment of the economic structure,the influence of economic development on power demand is also intensifying.The forecast of power supply and demand situations is an important reference for the marketing of the power market,the planning of the power system and the economic decision-making of power companies,which has attracted more more attention from power enterprises.The accurate forecast of power supply and demand situations has become important basic work in the formulation of power planning,and it is also the need to maintain the healthy and sustainable development of national economy.Through the analysis of the influence factors of power supply and demand situations and the horizontal comparision of many forecasting methods of power supply and demand situations,this paper presents a forecasting method of power demand based on trend extrapolation,and verifies the effectiveness of the proposed method with a regional power grid as an example.

关 键 词：电力需求预测 电力系统 多因素 趋势外推法 

分 类 号：TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]