气候变化背景下湖南普通油茶气象灾害风险时空变化  

Spatial-temporal Variation of Meteorological Disaster Risk for Camellia oleifera in Hunan under Climate Change

作　　者：蒋元华[1,2] 郭凌曜 JIANG Yuan-hua;GUO Ling-yao(Hunan Climate Center,Changsha 410118,China;Dongting Lake National Climatic Observatory,China Meteorological Administration,Yueyang 414000)

机构地区：[1]湖南省气候中心,长沙410118 [2]洞庭湖国家气候观象台,岳阳414000

出　　处：《中国农业气象》2024年第6期643-656,共14页Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology

基　　金：中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2022J055);湖南神农国油油茶产业科技创新创业团队(湘人才发[2022]9号)。

摘　　要：基于1961-2020年湖南省高空间分辨率历史气象分析资料和BCC_CSM模式2021-2050年气候预估数据,采用普通油茶气象灾害综合指数分析湖南普通油茶气象灾害风险区划时空变化特征、几何中心及位移变化。结果表明:(1)1991-2020年与1961-1990年相比,湖南普通油茶气象灾害风险等级降低,高、中、低风险等级区面积占比分别减少10.4、15.6和17.5个百分点,微风险等级区面积占比增加43.5个百分点;各风险等级区均向高海拔区迁移。(2)2021-2050年与1991-2020年相比,中风险等级区和低风险等级区面积占比分别增加46.6个和20.6个百分点,微风险等级区和高风险等级区面积占比分别减少63.4个和3.8个百分点;微风险等级区和高风险等级区向高海拔区迁移,中风险等级区和低风险等级区向低海拔区迁移。(3)在多种气象灾害综合影响下,微风险等级区前30a(1991-2020年)覆盖湖南省大部地区,未来30a(2021-2050年)将缩减至仅湘东南南部地区;低风险等级区先收缩后发展至全省大部;中风险等级区向北位移;高风险等级区向西北位移。To investigate the spatial-temporal variability of the meteorological disaster risk to Camellia oleifera in Hunan,the high-resolution historical meteorological data from 1961 to 2020 and the BCC_CSM model forecast data from 2021 to 2050 were used.The comprehensive meteorological disaster index of Camellia oleifera was used to analyze spatial-temporal features,geocentric changes and displacements of meteorological disaster risk in Hunan.The results showed a general decline in the meteorological disaster rating of Camellia oleifera between 1991 to 2020 compared to the 1961 to 1990 period.The proportions of high-level,medium-level,and low-level disaster areas decreased by 10.4,15.6 and 17.5 percent points,respectively,while the proportion of micro-level disaster areas expanded by 43.5 percent points.The mean altitude at each level was increased.Compared with the period from 1991 to 2020,the area proportions at the medium-level and low-level disaster increased by 46.6 and 20.6 percent points,respectively,while they decreased by 63.4 and 3.8 percent points at the micro-level and high-level disaster in the period from 2021 to 2050.In addition,the mean altitude increased at high-level and micro-level disaster,but decreased at low-level and medium-level.In the first 30 years,micro-level disasters dominated in Hunan.Over the next 30 years,micro-level disasters will shrink to mainly southeastern Hunan,low-level disasters will expand across Hunan,medium-level disasters will shift to the north,and high-level disasters will move to northwest Hunan.

关 键 词：油茶 气象灾害 风险区划 气候变化 

分 类 号：S794.4[农业科学—林木遗传育种] S761[农业科学—林学]