中国老年人群阿尔茨海默病疾病负担的年龄-时期-队列分析  

Age-period cohort analyses of the burden of Alzheimer’s disease in the elderly population in China

作　　者：李丽娜 魏洪娟 杨雪雯 刘新研[4] 李强[2] 韩树国 赵宇 LI Li-na;WEI Hong-juan;YANG Xue-wen;LIU Xin-yan;LI Qiang;HAN Shu-guo;ZHAO Yu(Harbin Technician College(Harbin Labor Technician College),Harbin,Heilongjiang 150025,China)

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨技师学院(哈尔滨劳动技师学院),黑龙江哈尔滨150025 [2]齐齐哈尔医学院护理学院 [3]齐齐哈尔医学院附属第三医院 [4]哈尔滨医科大学公共卫生学院 [5]齐齐哈尔市卫生健康综合监督执法局

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2024年第10期1754-1759,共6页Modern Preventive Medicine

基　　金：齐齐哈尔市科技计划联合引导项目(LSFGG-2022046)。

摘　　要：目的分析中国老年人群1990—2019年阿尔茨海默病疾病负担及年龄-时期-队列效应,为卫生行政部门制定防治措施提供科学依据。方法基于2019年全球疾病负担(GBD)数据,分析1990—2019年中国60~89岁老年人群阿尔茨海默病的发病率、残疾调整生命年(DALY),并计算平均年度变化百分比(AAPC)和连接点回归分析预测其趋势变化,通过Stata 17.0软件构建年龄-时期-队列模型,分析发病率和DALY率在年龄、时期以及队列三个维度的变化趋势。结果2019年中国老年人群阿尔茨海默病发病例数和DALY分别为1526516和5034024人年,其中男性发病人数和DALY分别为5829523和1956623人年,女性发病人数和DALY分别为943563和3077401人年。2019年中国老年人群的发病率和DALY率分别为600.49/10万和1980.23/10万,平均每年以1.12%和0.81%速率增长,老年人群男性较老年人群女性增长的幅度更为明显。对于年龄越高的老人,其发病风险和DALY风险越高;出生越早的人群,其发病率和DALY风险越高,随后风险效应系数逐渐下降。结论中国老年人群阿尔茨海默病的疾病负担仍然较大,卫生行政部门应采取相关措施以减轻患者的疾病负担。Objective To analyze the epidemiological trends of Alzheimer’s disease in the elderly population in China from 1990 to 2019,and to provide a scientific basis for the specific formulation of prevention and treatment measures.Methods Based on data obtained from the Global Burden of Disease(GBD)2019 database,we analyzed quantitative changes in the number of incidences and disability-adjusted life years(DALYs)of Alzheimer’s disease among people aged 60 to 89 years in China from 1990 to 2019.Trend changes over the period were assessed by calculating the annual percentage change(AAPC)and linkage regression analysis,age-period-cohort models were constructed by Stata17 to analyze trends in DALY incidence and rates along three dimensions:age,period,and cohort.Results The number of DALY and Alzheimer’s disease incidence cases in the Chinese elderly population in 2019 was 1526516 and 5034024 person-years,respectively,with 5829523 and 1956623 person-years of DALY and Alzheimer’s disease incidence in elderly men,and 943563 and 3077401 person-years of DALY and Alzheimer’s disease incidence in elderly women,respectively.The Chinese elderly population in 2019 Incidence and DALY rates were 600.49 per 100000 and 1980.23 per 100000,respectively,increasing at an average rate of 1.12%and 0.81%per year,with a more pronounced increase in elderly men than in elderly women.Conclusion China’s elderly population faces a heavy burden of disease from Alzheimer’s disease,and the government should take immediate action to alleviate the heavy morbidity and financial burden on patients.

关 键 词：阿尔茨海默病 发病率 疾病负担 年龄-时期-队列模型 

分 类 号：R749.16[医药卫生—神经病学与精神病学]