中国内地对台湾地区出口的影响因素分析——基于CMS模型  

Analysis of the influencing factors of Chinese mainland's export of aquatic products to Taiwan:based on CMS model

作　　者：尹则淅 乐家华[1] 闫周府 YIN Zexi;LE Jiahua;YAN Zhoufu(School of Economics and Management,Shanghai Ocean University,Shanghai 201306,China)

机构地区：[1]上海海洋大学经济管理学院,上海201306

出　　处：《中国渔业经济》2024年第3期101-107,共7页Chinese Fisheries Economics

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学青年项目(21YJC790139)资助。

摘　　要：本文选取联合国贸易2002-2022年中国内地对台湾地区水产品出口贸易数据,运用CMS模型对中国内地水产品出口到台湾地区的影响因素进行两个层次的分析。结果表明:1.2002-2022年期间,中国内地对台湾地区水产品的出口呈现“缓增-激增-跌落”三个阶段,对台主要出口甲壳软体制品、鲜冷甲壳及软体类、生鲜冷冻鱼和鱼制品四类水产品。2.在2002-2022年期间的三个阶段中,竞争力效应和第二层次分解的综合竞争力效应是影响中国内地对台湾地区水产品出口的主导因素。3.在2018-2022年阶段台湾地区水产品进口规模扩大,但是中国内地水产品在台湾地区市场上的市场份额却降低。再此基础上,提出促进两岸水产品贸易相应的对策建议。Based on the United Nations trade database 2002-2022,this paper uses the CMS Model to analyze the influencing factors of Chinese mainland's export of aquatic products to Taiwan region at two levels.The results are as followings.Firstly,during 2002-2022,the mainland's export of aquatic products to Taiwan region presents three stages of"slow increase-sharp increase-decline",and the main export of aquatic products to Taiwan region is four types of aquatic products,they are shell,soft tissue products,fresh and frozen shell and soft tissue products,fresh and frozen fish and fish products.Secondly,during the three stages from 2002 to 2022,the competitiveness effect and the comprehensive competitiveness effect of the second level decomposition are the leading factors affecting the mainland's export of aquatic products to Taiwan region.Lastly,during 2018-2022,the competitiveness of mainland aquatic products in the Taiwan region market declines,and the market share decreases.Finally,the paper puts forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions to promote the trade of aquatic products across the Taiwan region Strait.

关 键 词：水产品 出口 CMS模型 台湾地区 

分 类 号：F326.406[经济管理—产业经济]