粤港澳珠三角区域大气复合污染趋势及人群健康效应  

Atmospheric Composite Pollution Trends and Population Health Impacts in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Pearl River Delta Region

作　　者：李晨 王佳燕 赵辉 LI Chen;WANG Jiayan;ZHAO Hui(School of Electronic Information Engineering,Wuxi University,Wuxi 214063,China;School of Resources and Environmental Engineering,Jiangsu University of Technology,Changzhou 213001,China;Department of Environmental Science and Engineering,Fudan University,Shanghai 200438,China;Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment Monitoring and Pollution Control,Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044,China)

机构地区：[1]无锡学院电子信息工程学院,江苏无锡214063 [2]江苏理工学院资源与环境工程学院,江苏常州213001 [3]复旦大学环境科学与工程系,上海200438 [4]南京信息工程大学,江苏省大气环境监测与污染控制高技术研究重点实验室,江苏南京210044

出　　处：《环境科学研究》2024年第6期1378-1388,共11页Research of Environmental Sciences

基　　金：中国博士后科学基金项目(No.2020M681157)。

摘　　要：准确评估空气污染对健康的风险是当前大气环境领域普遍关注的焦点之一。本文利用2015−2019年粤港澳珠三角区域细颗粒物(PM_(2.5))浓度和臭氧日最大8 h平均浓度(MDA8 O_(3)浓度)的观测数据,研究了其空间分布、变化趋势及对人体健康的影响。结果表明:①2015−2019年PM_(2.5)平均浓度呈从西北到东南递减的空间分布特征,而MDA8 O_(3)平均浓度的空间分布则呈从东南向西北递减的特征。PM_(2.5)浓度和MDA8 O_(3)浓度的月变化特征分别呈“V”型和“M”型。与其他研究不同的是,粤港澳珠三角区域MDA8 O_(3)浓度在秋季最高,其次是春季和夏季。②2015−2019年PM_(2.5)年均浓度总体呈下降趋势,年均降速为1.5μg/m^(3),而MDA8 O_(3)年均浓度表现为每年上升2.2μg/m^(3)。空间上,澳门地区、中山、香港地区、佛山和东莞的PM_(2.5)浓度降速较高,而珠海的MDA8 O_(3)浓度升速最高,其次是中山和深圳。③2019年粤港澳珠三角区域因PM_(2.5)长期暴露导致的全因与心血管疾病死亡人数分别为19638人〔95%置信区间(CI):4442~29458人〕与1236人(95%CI:782~1690人),与2015年相比分别下降了29.1%和29.3%;2019年因O_(3)长期暴露引起的全因与心血管疾病死亡人数分别为12769人(95%CI:6449~25280人)与5700人(95%CI:1925~11227人),分别较2015年增加了21.5%与21.3%。研究显示,粤港澳珠三角区域大气PM_(2.5)污染改善所带来的健康风险可能会被O_(3)污染增加导致的健康风险所抵消,因此未来该地区需要特别重视PM_(2.5)和O_(3)的协同控制。Accurately assessing the health risks of air pollution is the focus of today′s atmospheric environmental field.This study uses observational data of fine particulate matter(PM_(2.5))concentration and daily maximum 8-hour average ozone(MDA8 O_(3))concentration in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Pearl River Delta Region from 2015 to 2019 to explore their spatial distribution,trend variations,and their impact on human health.The research results show that:(1)The average concentration of PM_(2.5)from 2015 to 2019 showed a spatial distribution pattern that decreased from northwest to southeast,and the average concentration of MDA8 O_(3)showed a spatial distribution pattern that decreased from southeast to northwest.The monthly changes in PM_(2.5)and MDA8 O_(3)concentrations were‘V’shaped and‘M’shaped,respectively.Uniquely,MDA8 O_(3)concentrations were highest in autumn,followed by spring and summer.(2)The average annual concentration of PM_(2.5)from 2015 to 2019 showed an overall downward trend,with an average annual decrease of 1.5μg/m^(3),while the average annual concentration of MDA8 O_(3)increased by 2.2μg/m^(3)annually.From a spatial perspective,the PM_(2.5)concentrations in Macao,Zhongshan,Hong Kong,Foshan,and Dongguan decreased significant,while the MDA8 O_(3)concentration in Zhuhai increased the highest,followed by Zhongshan and Shenzhen.(3)In 2019,the number of all-cause deaths and cardiovascular disease deaths caused by long-term exposure to PM_(2.5)in the region were 19,638(95%Confidence Interval(CI):4,442-29,458)and 1,236(95%CI:782-1,690)respectively,down 29.1%and 29.3%respectively from 2015.In contrast,the number of all-cause deaths and cardiovascular diseases deaths due to longterm O_(3)exposure were 12,769(95%CI:6,449-25,280)and 5,700(95%CI:1,925-11,227)respectively,indicating an increase of 21.5%and 21.3%since 2015.This study suggests that the health benefits of mitigating PM_(2.5)pollution in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Pearl River Delta Region may be offset by the health risks from increa

关 键 词：大气污染 O_(3) PM_(2.5) 健康影响 粤港澳珠三角区域 

分 类 号：X16[环境科学与工程—环境科学]