气候变化对西藏自治区青稞需水影响研究  

A Study on the Impact of Climate Change on the Water Requirement of Highland Barley in the Tibet Autonomous Region

作　　者：孙进 鲁帆[1] 王康铭 周毓彦[1] 于嵩彬 戴雁宇 朱晨雨 SUN Jin;LU Fan;WANG Kang-ming;ZHOU Yu-yan;YU Song-bin;DAI Yan-yu;ZHU Chen-yu(State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin,China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China)

机构地区：[1]中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京100038

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2024年第6期64-74,81,共12页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究专题(2019QZKK0207-02);2022年度科技智库青年人才计划(20220615ZZ07110156);国家自然青年科学基金项目(51909275);流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室开放研究基金项目(IWHR-SKL-KF202204)。

摘　　要：探索全球气候变化背景下作物需水及灌溉需水的时空变化,对于作物种植结构调整、农业灌溉定额确定以及水资源管理具有至关重要的意义。研究基于西藏自治区内13个气象站点1979-2020年的农业气象资料和CMIP6中的6个气候模式预估数据,研究了历史观测期(1979-2020年)及未来(2021-2100年)4种典型情景(SSP126、SSP245、SSP370和SSP585)下西藏自治区青稞生育期内主要气象要素时空变化,着重探讨了近期(2021-2050年)青稞作物需水量(CWR)与灌溉需水量(IWR)的时空分布特征,并量化了主要气候要素对CWR年际变化的影响。结果显示:(1)1979-2020年西藏自治区青稞生育期内主要气象要素年际变化表现为:平均气温显著上升,年均降水量不显著上升,平均风速(WND)、相对湿度(RH)与地表净辐射(Rn)显著下降。历史观测时段内CWR与IWR的多年均值分别为439.4 mm和342.7 mm,年际间均表现为不显著的下降趋势;(2)CWR与气温、WND、Rn呈显著正相关,与RH呈显著负相关。其中Rn的减少对观测时段内CWR年际变化影响最大;(3)预计到本世纪末,青稞生育期内气温和降水将会继续上升,RH将增加2.1%~8.3%,WND将变化-0.4~0.8 m/s,Rn将减少3.4%~6.2%。就近期而言,CWR预计变化-29.3~13.6 mm,IWR将减少23.7~113.0 mm。研究结果可为全球气候变化背景下藏区农业水资源适应性管理提供科学依据和参考。Exploring the spatiotemporal changes in crop water requirements and irrigation water requirements under the background of global climate change is of vital importance for adjusting crop planting structures,determining agricultural irrigation quotas,and managing water resources.This study is based on agricultural meteorological data from 13 meteorological stations in the Tibet Autonomous Region from 1979 to 2020 and forecast data from six climate models in CMIP6.It examines the spatiotemporal changes in the main meteorological elements during the growing period of highland barley in the Tibet Autonomous Region during the historical observation period(1979-2020)and the future(2021-2100)under four typical scenarios(SSP126,SSP245,SSP370,and SSP585).It focuses on the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of Crop Water Requirement(CWR)and Irrigation Water Requirement(IWR)for highland barley in the near term(2021-2050)and quantifies the impact of the main climate elements on the interannual variation of CWR.The results show:①During 1979-2020,the interannual variations of the main meteorological elements during the growing period of highland barley in the Tibet Autonomous Region were characterized by a significant increase in average temperature,a non-significant increase in annual precipitation,and a significant decrease in average wind speed(WND),relative humidity(RH),and net radiation(Rn)at the surface.During the historical observation period,the multi-year averages of CWR and IWR were 439.4 mm and 342.7 mm,respectively,both showing a non-significant decreasing trend annually;②CWR showed a significant positive correlation with temperature,WND,and Rn,and a significant negative correlation with RH.Among them,the decrease in Rn had the greatest impact on the interannual variation of CWR during the observation period;③By the end of this century,the temperature and precipitation during the growing period of highland barley are expected to continue to rise,RH will increase by 2.1%to 8.3%,WND will change by-0.4 m

关 键 词：气候变化 CMIP6 作物需水量 青稞 西藏 

分 类 号：S274.4[农业科学—农业水土工程]