考虑参考价格效应的中断供应链动态恢复策略  

Dynamic recovery strategy for disrupted supply chain under reference price effect

作　　者：孟庆春[1,2] 朱子怡 谢磊 薛小乐 MENG Qingchun;ZHU Ziyi;XIE Lei;XUE Xiaole(School of Management,Shandong University,Jinan 250100,China;Digitalized and Intelligent Management and Decision Simulation Laboratory of Colleges and Universities in Shandong Province,Jinan 250100,China)

机构地区：[1]山东大学管理学院,济南250100 [2]山东省高等学校数智管理与决策模拟实验室,济南250100

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2024年第4期1268-1281,共14页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(72134004,12001316);山东大学基本科研业务费专项资金(2020GN005)。

摘　　要：为了满足供应中断后的时变需求,恢复决策需随时间调整,而普遍的静态策略无法描述这一过程.文章基于微分博弈理论,在静态恢复策略的基础上提出了动态恢复策略,考虑在有限恢复计划期内参考价格效应对动态需求的影响,分析最优供应恢复努力水平和参考价格最优轨迹,并进一步设计双向成本补贴契约实现供应链协调.研究发现:相比于静态恢复策略,动态恢复策略对各方更有利,其最优供应恢复努力水平随时间以递减的速率降低;对于持续时间较长的中断和忠诚度高且对参考价格敏感的消费者,供应链成员倾向于投入更大的恢复努力水平并采用契约协调供应链;在双向成本补贴契约下,只有当供应商和制造商的边际利润占比差距较小时,双向成本补贴契约能够实现双方的帕累托改进.最后拓展分析考虑贴现因子的情形,验证了模型的鲁棒性.本研究可为有限时域内考虑消费者行为要素的供应链动态恢复管理提供决策支持.To meet time-varying demand in supply disruptions,recovery decisions need to be adjusted over time,whereas static strategies cannot solve this problem.Based on the differential game theory,this paper proposes two recovery strategies:Static recovery and dynamic recovery.By considering the impact of the reference price effect on dynamic demand,we study the optimal recovery effort level and reference price in a finite time horizon.The two-way cost-sharing contract is designed to achieve supply chain coordination.We show that the dynamic recovery strategy is more favorable and the optimal recovery effort level decreases with time at a decreasing rate.The supply chain members are inclined to make an effort in higher levels of the recovery effort and use contract to coordinate supply chain for longer-lasting disruptions and consumers with high loyalty for products and sensitivity to reference prices.The two-way cost-sharing contract can achieve Pareto improvement only when the marginal profit rate difference between the supplier and manufacturer is in a small range.Finally,the original model is extended to analyze the situations considering the discount factor,and the robustness of the model is verified.This study can provide decisions for the dynamic recovery of supply chain while considering consumer behavior factors in a finite time horizon.

关 键 词：供应链中断 动态恢复 微分博弈 参考价格效应 

分 类 号：F272[经济管理—企业管理]