气候变化对中国东北三省主要粮食作物影响研究综述  

Review of research on the impacts of climate change on staple grain crops in the three provinces of Northeast China

作　　者：于水 张晓龙 王妍 沈彦军[1,2] YU Shui;ZHANG Xiaolong;WANG Yan;SHEN Yanjun(Center for Agricultural Resources Research,Institute of Genetics and Developmental Biology,Chinese Academy of Sciences/Key Labo-ratory of Agricultural Water Resources,Chinese Academy of Sciences/Hebei Laboratory of Agricultural Water-Saving,Shijiazhuang 050022,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;College of Geographical Sciences,Hebei Normal University/Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Ecological Construction of Hebei Province,Shijiazhuang 050024,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院遗传与发育生物学研究所农业资源研究中心/中国科学院农业水资源重点实验室/河北省节水农业重点实验室,石家庄050022 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100049 [3]河北师范大学地理科学学院/河北省环境演变与生态建设实验室,石家庄050024

出　　处：《中国生态农业学报（中英文）》2024年第6期970-985,共16页Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture

基　　金：中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(XDA28020503,XDA28020500);河北省重点研发计划项目(22377001D);河北省创新研究群体项目(D2021503001)资助。

摘　　要：全球气候变化已经成为事实,并且导致全球粮食危机和饥饿风险增加。东北三省作为我国主要的粮食生产基地,对气候变化十分敏感。本文梳理了当前及未来气候变化对东北三省玉米、水稻和大豆生产影响的相关研究,概括了当前主要研究方法、东北三省主要作物对气候变化的响应以及应对措施,并进一步评述了当前主要研究方法和研究领域的不足:1)研究气候变化和极端气候事件对作物生长发育和产量影响的主要方法包括田间试验法、统计分析法以及作物模型法,其中田间试验法结果最直观,统计分析法可操作强、应用范围最广,作物模型法机理性强。2)东北三省气候变化明显,并且随着气候变化,干旱逐渐取代低温冷害成为当地主要灾害。3)气候变化对东北三省作物生产整体是有利的。气候变暖改善了东北三省热量资源,不仅使作物种植区域逐渐北移,作物品种也逐渐从早中熟向中晚熟转变。4)随着气候变暖不断加剧,未来东北地区作物应选择耐高温、抗旱和抗寒等抗逆性强的品种;加强农田水利设施建设,增强应对干旱洪涝灾害的能力;采用新的农业管理措施,保护土壤健康以及粮食生产安全。5)未来需要加强对CO_(2)补偿效应以及病虫害等的研究,加强对作物模型的完善,以更好地应对气候变化对粮食安全的不利影响。The reality of global climate change has already led to food crises and increased risk of starvation in some parts of the world.As a major grain production region,the three provinces of Northeast China are particularly vulnerable to climate change.In this article,we categorize the effects of climate change and extreme climate events on the production of maize,rice,and soybean in the three provinces of Northeast China.We then summarize the main research methods used to study climate change and its effects on staple grain crops as well as countermeasures to climate change,and further review the challenges of the major research methodolo-gies and fields.1)Statistical analysis,crop modeling,and field experiments were the main techniques used to investigate how climate change and extreme climate events affect crop growth and yield.Although crop modeling and field experiments offered the most powerful mechanistic insights,statistical analysis was the most extensively used practical approach.2)Climate change is evident in the three provinces of Northeast China,whereas drought has steadily replaced low-temperature freezing damage as the main agricul-tural disaster over time.3)Climate change has been favorable to crop yield in the three provinces of Northeast China,with global warming improving heat resources.Crop-growing areas are gradually moving northward,and varieties are undergoing a shift from early-medium maturity to medium-late maturity.4)As global warming continues to intensify,it will be crucial to opt for crop variet-ies in the future that demonstrate robust resilience to high temperatures,drought,cold,and other environmental challenges.Addition-ally,agricultural irrigation systems should be enhanced to ensure resilience against drought and flood disasters.To safeguard the health of the soil and ensure food security,new agricultural management techniques should also be considered.5)Research on CO_(2) compensation,pests and diseases,and the improvement of crop models need to be intensified and enhanced to better

关 键 词：东北三省 气候变化 气象灾害 主要粮食作物 热量资源 CO_(2)补偿效应 

分 类 号：S162.53[农业科学—农业气象学]