基于最佳景观尺度的鄱阳湖区土地利用冲突时空演变及多情景模拟  

Spatitemporal of Land Use Conflicts and Multi-Scenario Simulation in Poyang Lake Area Based on Optimal Landscape Scale

作　　者：王博 舒晓波[1,2] 廖富强[1,2] 黎钰 万智巍 Wang Bo;Shu Xiaobo;Liao Fuqiang;Li Yu;Wan Zhiwei(School of Geography and Environment,Jiangxi Normal University,Nanchang 330022,China;Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Wetland and Watershed Research of Education,Jiangxi Normal University,Nanchang 330022,China;School of Geography and Environmental Engineering,Gannan Normal University,Ganzhou,Jiangxi 341000,China)

机构地区：[1]江西师范大学地理与环境学院,南昌330022 [2]江西师范大学鄱阳湖湿地与流域研究教育部重点实验室,南昌330022 [3]赣南师范大学地理与环境工程学院,江西赣州341000

出　　处：《水土保持研究》2024年第4期336-347,共12页Research of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金“淀粉粒几何形态测量及其在鄱阳湖流域新石器晚期原始农业植物利用多样性研究中的应用”(42267068)。

摘　　要：[目的]科学评估区域土地利用冲突水平的时空演化特征,可为区域土地资源的合理配置发挥重要作用。[方法]基于景观生态风险视角构建土地利用冲突测算模型,借鉴最佳景观尺度设定方法确定了适宜的分析尺度,分析了鄱阳湖区1990—2020年土地利用冲突的时空演变特征,并借助PLUS模型多情景模拟了2035年土地利用冲突空间格局。[结果]鄱阳湖区土地利用冲突的总体空间格局是滨湖区显著高于外围地区,南部地区总体高于北部地区,平原地区高于山地和丘陵地区,河流两侧的冲突值也显著偏高。1990—2005年城镇地区的冲突变化并不显著,乡村地域及县域交界区域冲突水平较高,2005—2020年冲突水平进一步加剧;2035年不同情景下冲突的总体空间格局将延续2020年的状态,但可持续发展情景能有效缓和冲突水平,实现生态保护和经济发展的平衡发展。[结论]1990—2020年鄱阳湖区土地利用冲突重心由乡村及县域交界区域向城镇地区转移,且冲突水平呈不断上升趋势,未来应坚持可持续发展方式,有序进行国土空间开发,注重生态保护和经济发展间的平衡。[Objective]Assess the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of regional land use conflict level can play an important role in the rational allocation of regional land resources.[Methods]A land use conflict measurement model was constructed based on the perspective of landscape ecological risk,and the optimal landscape scale setting method was used to set the appropriate analysis scale,analyze the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of land use conflict in Poyang Lake Area from 1990 to 2020,and simulate the spatial pattern of land use conflict in 2035 with the help of the PLUS model in multiple scenarios.[Results]The overall spatial pattern of land use conflicts in Poyang Lake Area that the lakefront area significantly higher than the peripheral area,the southern area generally higher than the northern area,the plain area higher than the mountainous and hilly areas,and the values of conflicts on both sides of the river also significantly high.1990—2005 conflict changes in urban areas not significant,the level of conflicts in the rural areas and the county junction areas higher,and the level of conflicts further aggravated in the period of 2005—2020,the conflicts of different areas in different scenarios simulated with the help of PLUS model.The level of conflict further aggravated in 2005—2020 overall spatial pattern of conflict under different scenarios in 2035 will continue the state in 2020,but the sustainable development scenario can effectively moderate the level of conflict and realize the balanced development of ecological protection and economic development.[Conclusion]From 1990 to 2020,the center of gravity of land use conflicts in the Poyang Lake shifted from rural and county boundary areas to urban areas,and the level of conflicts showed a rising trend.In the future,the sustainable development method,spatial development of the land in an orderly manner,and attention to the balance between ecological protection and economic development.

关 键 词：土地利用冲突 最佳景观尺度 多情景模拟 PLUS模型 鄱阳湖区 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学] F301.2[经济管理—产业经济]