可达性对城市群多模式交通碳排放的空间异质性影响  

Impacts of Accessibility on Spatial Heterogeneity of Multimodal Transportation Carbon Emissions in an Urban Agglomeration

作　　者：马书红[1] 陈西芳 杨磊[1] 赵玉哲 曾玉 MA Shuhong;CHEN Xifang;YANG Lei;ZHAO Yuzhe;ZENG Yu(College of Transportation Engineering,Chang'an University,Xi'an 710064,China)

机构地区：[1]长安大学,运输工程学院,西安710064

出　　处：《交通运输系统工程与信息》2024年第3期64-74,共11页Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology

基　　金：陕西省社会科学基金(2023R030);教育部人文社科基金(23YJAZH097);陕西省交通厅科技项目(21-13R)。

摘　　要：当前,在交通行业碳减排存在巨大挑战以及未来中国城市群交通发展长远规划双重背景下,如何通过改善交通可达性提高居民出行效率和减少碳排放是亟待解决的关键问题之一。本文基于城际出行手机信令数据,从居民出行的角度提出城际多模式交通客运碳排放量方法,并采用梯度提升决策树(GBDT)模型及多尺度地理加权回归(MGWR)模型探讨可达性对区域碳排放量的空间异质性影响。以关中平原城市群为例进行验证,结果表明:城际公路客运碳排放量远大于铁路,呈现沿交通基础设施线路分布的特征;在整体区域范围内,可达性指标对碳排放水平具有一定的正向边际效应;MGWR能够刻画碳排放与可达性指标关系的空间异质性及尺度差异;经济潜能可达性、介数中心性及接近中心性对城际碳排放具有显著的正向空间异质性影响,但影响尺度不同;公路客运碳排放对介数中心性及接近中心性要素较为敏感,经济潜能对碳排放的影响较为平稳;铁路出行可达性的提升对中心城市的影响效应低于周边区县城市。Under the double stress of the significant challenge posed by carbon emission reduction in the current transportation industry and the long-term plan for transportation development of China's urban agglomerations,improving the travel efficiency and simultaneously reducing carbon emission by improving accessibility is one of the key issues that need to be addressed urgently.This study proposed a method to estimate the carbon emission of intercity multimodal passenger transportation from the perspective of residents'travel using mobile phone signal data.Then,the impact of accessibility on the spatial heterogeneity of multimodal transportation carbon emissions was investigated using the gradient boosting decision tree(GBDT)model and the multi-scale geographically weighted regression(MGWR)model.The Guanzhong Plain urban agglomeration is taken as the study area.The results show that:the carbon emissions of the intercity road passenger are higher than railway,and distribution characteristics along transportation infrastructure lines.Accessibility has a positive marginal effect on the level of carbon emissions in the whole area.The MGWR can characterize the spatial heterogeneity and scale difference in the relationship between carbon emissions and accessibility indicators.Economic potential,betweenness centrality,and closeness centrality have significant positive spatial heterogeneity impacts on the intercity carbon emissions,but the scale of the effects varies.Carbon emissions of road passenger transportation are sensitive to betweenness centrality and closeness centrality,but the spatial impact of economic potential on carbon emissions is stable.The effect of increased rail travel accessibility on the central city is lower than that on the surrounding district and counties.

关 键 词：交通工程 空间异质性 多尺度地理加权回归模型 城际交通 可达性 碳排放 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]