城市便利性对人口规模的影响:理论与中国的经验证据  

The Impact of Urban Amenities on the Population Size:Theory and Empirical Evidence in China

作　　者：程瑶[1] 张松林 黄性芳 林金官[1] CHENG Yao;ZHANG Song-lin;HUANG Xing-fang;LIN Jin-guan(School of Statistics and Data Science,Nanjing Audit University,Nanjing 211815,China;School of Business,Shaoxing University,Shaoxing 312000,China)

机构地区：[1]南京审计大学统计与数据科学学院,江苏南京211815 [2]绍兴文理学院商学院,浙江绍兴312000

出　　处：《数理统计与管理》2024年第3期381-394,共14页Journal of Applied Statistics and Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(23BTJ023)。

摘　　要：随着城镇化进程的深入推进,城市的便利性被普遍认为是吸引外来人口流入的重要因素。运用2008-2017年中国34个大城市的面板数据,实证分析大城市便利性对其人口规模的影响,并检验其内在机制。研究表明:(1)吸引外来人口向大城市迁移的不是大城市便利性的提高,而是外来人口迁入后在大城市获得的便利性的提高;(2)样本回归结果显示,城市便利性与人口规模负相关,原因在于对人口高度集聚的大城市,城市便利性会提高以本地住房价格来反映的生活成本,由此造成外来人口对大城市便利度的获得性随着大城市便利度的提高而减小;(3)分东、中、西三大区域展开的异质性分析表明,城市便利性对人口规模的负面影响主要集中在东部地区,中西部地区的城市便利性尚未表现出对人口规模的显著抑制效应。With the deepening of urbanization,urban amenities are generally considered to be a significant factor in attracting immigrants.Utilizing panel data from 34 large Chinese cities for the period from 2008 to 2017,this paper analyzes the impact of urban amenities on population size and examines its intrinsic mechanisms.The research reveals that:(1)It is not merely the increase in urban amenities that attracts external populations to large cities;rather,it is the improved quality of amenities that the population experiences after migrating to these cities;(2)The sample regression results indicate a negative correlation between urban amenities and population size.This is attributed to the fact that in highly populated cities,urban amenities elevate living costs,as refected by local housing prices,thereby reducing the accessibility of urban amenities for immigrants with increasing levels of urban amenities;(3)A heterogeneity analysis conducted across the Eastern,Central,and Western regions demonstrates that the adverse impact of urban amenities on population size is primarily concentrated in the Eastern region.The amenities offered by cities in the Central and Western regions do not exhibit a significant deterrent effect on population size.

关 键 词：城市便利性 人口规模 住房价格 GMM估计 

分 类 号：F291[经济管理—国民经济] O212[理学—概率论与数理统计]