2000—2020年中国城乡热舒适梯度特征及其驱动因素  

The signatures and drivers of thermal comfort across the urban-rural gradient in Chinese cities from 2000 to 2020

作　　者：王旭 付学成 徐文甜 姚磊 WANG Xu;FU Xuecheng;XU Wentian;YAO Lei(College of Geography and Environment,Shandong Normal University,Jinan 250358,China;School of Architecture and Urban Planning,Chongqing University,Chongqing 400044,China;Tianjin Key Laboratory of Urban Transport Emission Research,College of Environmental Science and Engineering,Nankai University,Tianjin 300071,China)

机构地区：[1]山东师范大学地理与环境学院,济南250358 [2]重庆大学建筑城规学院,重庆400044 [3]南开大学环境科学与工程学院、天津市城市交通污染防治研究重点实验室,天津300071

出　　处：《地理学报》2024年第5期1318-1336,共19页Acta Geographica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42171094);山东省自然科学基金项目(ZR2021MD095,ZR2021QD093)。

摘　　要：加深对城乡居民热舒适状况的理解对于改善户外热环境具有重要意义。本文以生理等效温度(PET)为评价指标,基于ERA5-Land再分析数据,量化了2000—2020年夏季中国101个城市沿城乡梯度(核心区—拓展区—农村)的热舒适状况,并运用Sen斜率估计、Mann-Kendall显著性检验及地理探测器等方法,探讨了城乡热舒适的梯度特征及其驱动因素变化。结果表明:(1)核心区的平均PET水平(29.89℃)略高于拓展区(29.86℃),远高于农村(28.94℃),各梯度中PET较高的城市均主要位于京津冀和长江中游地区。(2)2000—2020年PET呈现上升趋势,其中核心区和拓展区上升速度均达到0.24℃/10a,农村为0.22℃/10a。(3)以植被覆盖度为主的自然因素和以人口密度为主的社会经济因素分别是决定核心区及农村PET的关键,而拓展区PET的驱动因素则不稳定,植被和不透水面覆盖度的作用日益增强。在PET上升的背景下,更多居民暴露于不适环境中,为应对热环境问题提出了新的挑战。未来需要开展更多的城乡热环境研究,为热适应策略的制定提供更为精准的建议。Deepening the understanding of thermal comfort conditions of urban and rural residents is important for improving the outdoor thermal environment.Based on ERA5-Land reanalysis data,this study quantifies the thermal comfort along the urban-rural gradient(urban core-urban expansion-rural area)in 101 large cities in China during the summers from 2000 to 2020 by taking physiological equivalent temperature(PET)as the evaluation index,and explores the spatiotemporal characteristics of thermal comfort and its drivers along different gradients using the Sen's slope estimation,Mann-Kendall significance test and geodetector model.The results show that:(1)The average PET in the core areas(29.89℃)of case cities is slightly higher than that in the expansion areas(29.86℃)and much higher than that in the rural areas(28.94℃),and the cities with higher PET in each gradient are mainly located in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River.(2)PET shows an increasing trend from 2000 to 2020,with an increasing rate of 0.24℃/10a in the core and expansion areas,and 0.22℃/10a in the rural areas.(3)Natural factors dominated by vegetation coverage and socioeconomic factors dominated by population density are key determinants of PET in the core and rural areas,respectively,while the drivers of PET in the expansion areas are unstable,with vegetation and impervious surface coverage playing an increasing role.As PET rises,the population exposed to uncomfortable environments increases,and this state of affairs poses new challenges for addressing thermal environmental issues.In the future,more studies on the thermal environment in urban and rural areas need to be conducted to provide a more comprehensive reference for the development of thermal adaptation strategies.

关 键 词：城乡梯度 热舒适 生理等效温度 暴露风险 中国 

分 类 号：X16[环境科学与工程—环境科学]