中国经济与碳排放脱钩的时空异质性及其驱动因素分析  

Spatial and Temporal Heterogeneity of the Decoupling Between Economy and Carbon Emissions and Its Driving Factors

作　　者：王安静 郭琳 赵景峰[1] WANG An-jing;GUO Lin;ZHAO Jing-feng(School of Economics and Management,Northwest University,Xi'an 710127;School of International Trade and Economics,University of International Business and Economics,Beijing 100029)

机构地区：[1]西北大学经济管理学院,西安710127 [2]对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院,北京100029

出　　处：《软科学》2024年第5期100-106,共7页Soft Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(19AJY001);国家自然科学基金项目(71603050);陕西省自然科学基础研究计划一般项目(2022JQ-746)。

摘　　要：将Tapio脱钩指数与LMDI分解方法结合,分别从中国整体层面和中国省份层面对2000—2019年的经济发展与二氧化碳排放脱钩指数进行测算并对脱钩的驱动因素进行分析。结果表明:(1)各省的经济发展与二氧化碳排放脱钩呈现出不同的状态和演变过程。(2)能源强度是促进经济发展与二氧化碳排放弱脱钩的最主要驱动因素(-30.6%),而人均GDP的增长则是抑制两者脱钩的最主要驱动因素(114.8%)。(3)各个驱动因素在各个省份不同的经济发展阶段所起的作用也不同,能源强度在一些省份的各个经济发展阶段都促进了二氧化碳排放的降低,而在一些经济发展比较落后的能源大省,则促进了二氧化碳排放的增长。Combining the Tapio decoupling index and LMDI decomposition method,this paper calculates the decoupling in-dex of economic development and carbon dioxide emissions at each stage in the time 20002019 under the overall level of China and the provincial level and analyzes the driving factors.The results show that:(1)The decoupling between economic development and carbon dioxide emissions in China's provinces presents different states and has different evolution proces-ses.(2)Energy intensity is the most important driving factor(-30.6%)to promote the weak decoupling between eco-nomic development and carbon dioxide emissions,while the growth of per capita GDP is the most important driving factor(114.8%)to inhibit the decoupling between economic development and carbon emissions.(3)Each driving factor plays different roles in different stages of economic development in each province.Energy intensity has reduced carbon dioxide e-missions in various stages in some provinces,while for some major energy provinces with relatively backward economic de-velopment,it has promoted the growth of carbon dioxide emissions.

关 键 词：碳排放脱钩 “双碳”目标 Tapio脱钩指数 LMDI分解方法 

分 类 号：X22[环境科学与工程—环境科学] F124[经济管理—世界经济]