基于有向网络的航空安全事故风险识别与评估  

Aviation safety accident risk identification and evaluation based on directed networks

作　　者：张晗 王强[1] ZHANG Han;WANG Qiang(Materiel Management&UAV Engineering College,Air Force Engineering University,Xi’an 710051,China;Audit Office,Xi’an University of Finance and Economics,Xi’an 710100,China)

机构地区：[1]空军工程大学装备管理与无人机工程学院,陕西西安710051 [2]西安财经大学审计处,陕西西安710100

出　　处：《系统工程与电子技术》2024年第6期1995-2001,共7页Systems Engineering and Electronics

摘　　要：针对航空安全事故风险识别与评估问题,基于2019年航空安全事故,通过事件树分析方法分析风险事件间的因果关系,建立了有向加权航空安全风险网络模型。面对航空安全风险传播的情况,引入传染病模型对航空安全风险网络风险传播进行建模,对风险事件进行排序以实现航空安全风险识别,提出了航空安全风险网络风险指标与航空安全事故发生风险指标,以评估航空系统安全风险。结果发现,能见度差、飞机系统故障、设备维护不足、违规操作、疲劳、资源配置不当、应急响应措施不当、飞行准备不足、教育培训不足等应当引起管理者的关注。Aiming at the identification and evaluation problem of aviation safety accident risk,based on the aviation safety accidents in 2019,the causal relationship between risk events is analyzed with event tree analysis method,and a directed weighted aviation safety risk network model is established.The infectious disease model is introduced to model the network risk propagation with the spread of aviation safety risk,and the risk events are ranked to identify aviation safety risk.The aviation safety risk network risk index and the aviation safety accident occurrence risk index are proposed to evaluate the aviation system safety risk.The results show that managers should be concerned about poor visibility,aircraft system failures,insufficient equipment maintenance,illegal operations,fatigue,improper resource allocation,improper emergency response measures,insufficient flight readiness,and insufficient education and training.

关 键 词：航空系统 航空事故 网络建模 传染病模型 风险识别 风险评估 

分 类 号：N945[自然科学总论—系统科学] U8[交通运输工程] X949[环境科学与工程—安全科学]