基于风险决策的山区铁路环保选线研究  

Research on Environmental Protection Route Selection of Railway in Mountainous Areas Based on Risk Decision

作　　者：李松真[1] LI Songzhen(Nanning Survey and Design Institute Co.,Ltd.of China Railway Siyuan Group,Nanning Guangxi 530007,China)

机构地区：[1]中铁四院集团南宁勘察设计院有限公司,广西南宁530007

出　　处：《铁道建筑技术》2024年第6期1-3,43,共4页Railway Construction Technology

基　　金：国家铁路局课题(KF2021-39)。

摘　　要：针对山区铁路同时穿越多个不同类型环境敏感点选线决策问题,以瑞金至梅州铁路中行至平远段选线决策开展案例研究,通过识别比较方案的环境风险事件,结合风险事件发生可能性分析,合理判别确定风险发生概率和后果等级;然后计算各方案的工程投资与环境风险损失期望值之和进行工程期望投资比较,从而定量地给出决策参考。研究结论:本文所构建的环保选线风险决策系统,符合山区铁路环保选线方案风险决策实际,成果可为其他类似项目决策研究提供参考。A case study is conducted on the decision-making problem of selecting routes for railway crossing multiple different types of environmentally sensitive points simultaneously in mountainous areas.The selection decision for the middle section of the Ruijin-Meizhou Railway to Pingyuan section is used to identify and compare environmental risk events in different schemes.By analyzing the likelihood of risk events occurring,the probability and consequence level of risk occurrence are reasonably determined;and then the sum of engineering investment and expected environmental risk losses for each scheme is calculated to compare the expected investment of engineering projects,thus providing quantitative decision-making references.It is concluded that the risk decision-making system for environmental protection route selection constructed in this paper is in line with the actual risk decision-making of railway environmental protection route selection schemes in mountainous areas.The results can provide reference for decision-making research in other similar projects.

关 键 词：风险决策 山区铁路 环保选线 风险损失期望值 工程期望投资 

分 类 号：U212.35[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]