基于驾驶模拟实验的陡坡急弯路段运行速度预测模型研究  

Research on Prediction Model of Running Speed on Steep Slope and Sharp Curve Section Based on Driving Simulation Experiment

作　　者：刘瑄 张志清 俞靖洋 LIU Xuan;ZHANG Zhiqing;YU Jingyang(College of Metropolitan Transportation,Beijing University of Technology,Beijing 100124,China;Beijing Municipal Engineering Design and Research Institute,Beijing 100082,China)

机构地区：[1]北京工业大学城市交通学院,北京100124 [2]北京市市政工程设计研究总院有限公司,北京100082

出　　处：《交通工程》2024年第6期27-33,共7页Journal of Transportation Engineering

基　　金：多因素动态耦合下道路安全风险产生机理与安全设计一致性基础理论研究(52178403)。

摘　　要：以某二级公路的陡坡-急弯路段为例,基于驾驶模拟实验,分析运行速度的变化规律。小客车在陡坡-急弯路段上行驶时,呈现出在陡坡处加速、在急弯处减速的变化规律,且运行速度极小值发生在大坡度(-4%)和小半径(R=200 m)组合的子路段。利用多元非线性回归分析方法,构建了以坡度和曲线半径为自变量的陡坡急弯路段坡度中点、曲线中点和曲线出口处运行速度预测模型,拟合效果良好,平均相对误差分别为1.22、0.60和2.10,均优于规范预测模型,预测精确度明显提升。研究成果可为陡坡急弯路段交通管控提供科学依据。Based on the driving simulation experiment,the variation law of running speed on a secondary highway with steep slopes and sharp bends was analyzed.When the passenger car is running on the steep slopes and sharp bends,it presents the variation law of accelerating at steep slopes and slowing down at sharp bends,and the minimum of running speed occurs in the sub-sections with large slopes(-4%)and small radius(R=200 m).By using multiple nonlinear regression analysis method,the prediction models of slope midpoint,curve midpoint and curve exit were constructed with slope and curve radius as independent variables,and the fitting effect was good.The average relative errors are 1.22,0.60 and 2.10 respectively,which are better than the standard prediction model,and the prediction accuracy is obviously improved.The research results can provide scientific basis for the traffic control of steep slopes and sharp bends.

关 键 词：道路安全 陡坡急弯路段 速度预测模型 驾驶模拟 多元非线性回归 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]