限行政策对外地牌照车主出行选择行为的影响研究——以深圳市为例  

Study on the Influence of Traffic Restriction Policy on Travel Choice Behavior of Vehicle Owners with Non-local License Plates——Take the City of Shenzhen for Example

作　　者：莫一魁 苏楚欣 王庆欢 周辉 蔡嘉浩 MO Yikui;SU Chuxin;WANG Qinghuan;ZHOU Hui;CAI Jiahao(School of Civil and Traffic Engineering Shenzhen University,Shenzhen 518060,China)

机构地区：[1]深圳大学土木与交通工程学院,深圳518060

出　　处：《交通工程》2024年第6期41-47,53,共8页Journal of Transportation Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51208308)。

摘　　要：根据国内典型限行政策的内容,分析了外地牌照车主在限行政策下的应对行为,在此基础上研究了他们在限行时段的出行决策过程。以深圳市外地牌照车主为调查对象,进行出行选择行为问卷调查。基于随机效用理论,建立外地牌照车主出行选择行为的两阶段Logit模型,同时对外地牌照车主的“改变出行方式”与“改变出行时间”的选择行为进行分析,结合个体社会经济属性、出行属性分析两阶段出行行为选择的影响因素。模型可为限行政策效果的评估及优化提供依据和参考。Based on the content of typical domestic traffic restriction policies,the response behavior of non-local license plate vehicle owners to the traffic restriction policies is analyzed,and on this basis,the travel decision-making process of non-local license plate vehicle owners during the time of traffic restriction is proposed.A questionnaire survey on travel choice behavior is carried out with the non-local license plate vehicle owners in Shenzhen as survey respondents.Based on the random utility theory,a two-stage logit model of the travel choice behavior of non-local license plate owners is established,and the choice behaviors of“changing the travel mode”and“changing the travel time”of foreign license plate owners are analyzed,combining with the individual socio-economic attributes and travel attributes to analyze the two-stage travel choice behavior.The logit model also analyzes the choice behavior of“changing travel mode”and“changing travel time”of non-local licensed vehicle owners and combines individual socio-economic attributes and travel attributes to analyze the influencing factors of the two-phase travel behavior.The model can provide a basis and reference for evaluating and optimizing the effect of the driving restriction policy.

关 键 词：限行政策 车辆牌照 出行选择行为 随机效用理论 LOGIT模型 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]