基于前景理论的违法停车行为分析——以北京市为例  

Illegal Parking Behavior Based on Prospect Theory——Take Beijing as an Example

作　　者：刘聪 关宏志[2] LIU Cong;GUAN Hongzhi(Beijing Hualu Gaocheng Technology Corporation,Beijing 100043,China;Beijing Key Laboratory of Traffic Engineering,Beijing University of Technology,Beijing 100124,China)

机构地区：[1]北京华录高诚科技有限公司,北京100043 [2]北京工业大学北京市交通工程重点实验室,北京100124

出　　处：《交通工程》2024年第6期80-84,共5页Journal of Transportation Engineering

摘　　要：违法停车是交通政策中应涉及的,而驾驶员在停车时是否选择违法停车的决策过程是有限理性的。通过调查发现驾驶员最关注步行时间,其次考虑停车费率和巡查频率;对停车费率、巡查频率的关注程度,随着年龄或者收入的增加呈现递减趋势,而对步行时间的重视程度,随着年龄或者收入的增加呈现递减趋势;基于前景理论建立的违法停车选择模型发现:低年收入群体对停车费率、罚款额、被罚概率的敏感度相对较高,而高收入群体对三者的敏感度相对较低。Illegal parking is something that should be addressed in transport policies,and the decision-making process of whether drivers choose to park illegally is bounded rationality.Through investigation,it was found that drivers are most concerned about walking time,followed by parking rates and inspection frequency;The level of attention to parking rates and inspection frequency decreases with age or income,while the level of emphasis on walking time decreases with age or income;the illegal parking selection model based on prospect theory found that the low-income group has a relatively high sensitivity to parking rates,penalty amounts,and probability of being penalized,while the high-income group has a relatively low sensitivity to the three factors.

关 键 词：前景理论 有限理性 交通政策 违法停车 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]