2024年英国大选走势及其对中英关系的影响  

The Prospect of the 2024 UK General Election and Its Impact on Sino-British Relations

作　　者：徐瑞珂 卢昱林 Xu Ruike;Lu Yulin

机构地区：[1]北京外国语大学英语学院,北京100089 [2]中国人民公安大学涉外警务学院,北京100038

出　　处：《当代世界社会主义问题》2024年第1期118-134,167,168,共19页Issues of Contemporary World Socialism

基　　金：北京社会科学基金青年项目“英美‘联合制华’倾向及对策研究”(22ZGC010)。

摘　　要：根据最新的英国民意调查、地方选举以及议会补选的结果分析,工党在2024年英国大选中有很高的可能性击败保守党,赢得单独执政的机会,结束其长达14年的在野地位。工党的选举前景之所以积极明朗,一方面源于长期执政的保守党因多起丑闻和严重内讧,公信力遭到重创,民众支持率大幅下降;另一方面归功于斯塔默领导下的工党积极调整政策走向,转向务实的中间路线,从而成功吸引了更广泛的选民支持。鉴于当前工党影子内阁核心成员积极向美国靠拢,热情支持“英美特殊关系”,预计未来工党政府的对华政策将更趋近于美国的对华政策,使得未来中英关系下行的风险加大。Based on the latest British public opinion polls and results of local elections and parliamentary by-elections,the Labour Party is highly likely to defeat the Conservative Party in the 2024 general election,securing an opportunity to form a majority government and end its 14-year period in opposition.On the one hand,the Labour Party's positive electoral prospects can be attributed to the diminished public trust and significant decline in popular support for the long-governing Conservative Party,owing to multiple scandals and severe internal strife.On the other hand,the Labour Party under Keir Starmer's leadership has actively adjusted its policy direction towards a practical centrist approach,successfully attracting wider support from voters.Given that the core members of the current Labour Party's shadow cabinet are actively moving closer to the US and enthusiastically support the“special relationship”between the UK and the US,it is anticipated that the future Labour government's policy towards China will increasingly align with that of the US,potentially escalating the risks of deteriorating Sino-British relations.

关 键 词：英国大选 工党 保守党 中英关系 美国 

分 类 号：D756.1[政治法律—政治学] D822.356.1[政治法律—中外政治制度]