面向洪水预报的雨量站网合理性评估与优化研究  

Evaluation and optimization of rainfall station network rationality for flood forecasting

作　　者：陈安琪 刘玉玉 高艺雄 徐征和 桑国庆 刘鲁霞 刘薇 李庆国 CHEN Anqi;LIU Yuyu;GAO Yixiong;XU Zhenghe;SANG Guoqing;LIU Luxia;LIU Wei;LI Qingguo(School of Water Conservancy and Environment,University of Jinan,Jinan250022,Shandong,China;Hydrological Center of Shandong Province,Jinan250002,Shandong,China)

机构地区：[1]济南大学水利与环境学院,山东济南250022 [2]山东省水文中心,山东济南250002

出　　处：《水利水电技术（中英文）》2024年第5期1-14,共14页Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42377077);山东省自然科学基金项目(ZR202102270263);济南大学重大课题基金(高质量发展背景下弥河流域水资源协调高效利用技术研究)。

摘　　要：【目的】雨量站作为专为收集降水资料而设计的观测点,是收集水情信息的重要来源。雨量站的合理布设可以及时、准确地反映流域降水情况,是洪水预报的必要信息。【方法】以山东省弥河流域为研究对象,基于锥体梯度法和泰森多边形理论,对现有雨量站网的合理性进行了评估。结合信息熵理论和最大信息最小冗余准则(MIMR),利用流域内22个地面雨量站的小时尺度降水序列,构建雨量站网优化模型,提出优化方案。【结果】结果表明,流域部分雨量站控制面积过大且部分雨量站之间相关性较差;雨量站间信息熵的变化规律表明:随着迭代次数的变化,联合熵逐渐变大并最终趋于稳定,互信息先增大后减小,冗余度越来越大,迭代17次后所选站点的信息量占信息总量的比值达98%;考虑到洪水预报的要求,建议在合理位置增设5个雨量站并改进修缮1个雨量站。【结论】优化后的雨量站网能更好地反映流域降雨信息。研究成果可为今后优化流域雨量站网提供理论依据。[Objective]As observation sites designed for precipitation data collection,rainfall stations are an important source for collecting water information.A reasonable deployment of rainfall stations can reflect timely and accurate precipitation in the basin,essential information for flood forecasting.[Methods]Taking the Mi River basin in Shandong Province,China,as the research object,the rationality of the existing rainfall station network is evaluated based on the cone gradient method and Thiessen polygon theory.Combined with entropy theory and Maximum Information Minimum Redundancy(MIMR)criterion,an optimization model was constructed using hourly-scale rainfall sequences from 22 surface rainfall stations in the basin,and an optimization scheme for the rainfall station network was proposed.[Results]The result show that some of the rainfall stations in the basin have too large a control area and some of them are poorly correlated with each other;the pattern of change in information entropy between rainfall stations indicates:with the change of the iteration times,the joint entropy gradually became larger and eventually stabilized,and the mutual information firstly increased and then decreased,and the redundancy was getting larger and larger,and the ratio of the information of the selected stations to the total amount of information of all the stations reached 98%after 17 iterations.Considering the requirements of flood forecasting,setting up 5 rainfall stations at a reasonable location is proposed and 1 rainfall station is improved.[Conclusion]The optimized rainfall station network can better reflect the rainfall information of the basin.These research result can provide a theoretical basis for optimizing basin rainfall station network in the future.

关 键 词：熵 MIMR 雨量站 洪水预报 降水 气候变化 时空分布 互信息 

分 类 号：P339[天文地球—水文科学]