灰色系统理论下贵州省跨境电商市场交易规模预测研究  

The Transaction Scale Prediction of Cross-border E-commerce Market in Guizhou Province Under the Grey System Theory

作　　者：周菁[1] ZHOU Jing

机构地区：[1]贵州交通职业技术学院,贵州贵阳551400

出　　处：《商业经济》2024年第6期92-96,共5页Business & Economy

基　　金：中国物流学会、教育部高校物流管理与工程类专业教指委、全国物流职业教育教指委2023年全国高校、职业院校物流教改教研课题:基于“技能贵州”背景下物流管理专业群实施“岗课赛证创”五融合的课程改革实践研究(JZW2023096)。

摘　　要：“一带一路”背景下,跨境电子商务快速发展,许多传统外贸以及内贸企业开始转型涉足跨境电商,各大快递企业也开始涉足跨境物流领域。作为中国西南地区的一个重要省份,贵州省积极推动跨境电商发展,取得了显著的成就。文章首先明确了影响跨境电商交易规模的几个影响因素:电商交易规模、航空货运量、海关进出口总额、快递业务量、快递业务收入等,通过关联度分析从中选取与贵州省跨境电商交易规模相关性较高的几个指标,采用灰色GM(1,N)模型对贵州跨境电商交易规模进行预测,并通过计算相对误差,残差以及后检验值比验证了预测结果的有效性,最后得到贵州省2023年—2027年跨境电商市场交易规模预测值。In the context of the Belt and Road Initiative,cross-border e-commerce has developed rapidly.Many traditional foreign trade and domestic trade enterprises have begun to transform and set foot in cross-border e-commerce,and major express enterprises have also launched cross-border logistics business.As an important province in southwestern China,Guizhou Province has actively promoted the development of cross-border e-commerce and made significant achievements.The paper first clarifies several influencing factors on the scale of cross-border e-commerce transactions:e-commerce transaction scale,air cargo volume,total customs import and export volume,express delivery business volume,express delivery business revenue,etc.Through correlation analysis,several indicators highly correlated with the scale of cross-border e-commerce transactions in the province are selected and the grey GM(1,N)model is used to predict the scale of the transactions.The effectiveness of the prediction results is verified by calculating relative error,residual,and post test value ratio.Finally,the predicted value of cross-border e-commerce market transaction scale in the province from 2023 to 2027 is obtained.

关 键 词：跨境电商交易规模 关联度分析 灰色GM(1 N)模型 预测 贵州省 

分 类 号：F740[经济管理—国际贸易]