碳交易条件下基于鲁棒优化的电源规划研究  

Research on Power Planning Based on Robust Optimization Under Carbon Trading Condition

作　　者：叶健强 孙敦虎 YE Jianqiang;SUN Dunhu(Construction Company of State Grid Ningxia Electric Power Co.,Ltd.,Yinchuan 750001,Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region,China)

机构地区：[1]国网宁夏电力有限公司建设分公司,宁夏回族自治区银川市750001

出　　处：《发电技术》2024年第3期566-574,共9页Power Generation Technology

基　　金：国网宁夏电力有限公司科技基金目(5229JS210001)。

摘　　要：【目的】提高电源规划中对不确定性参数的处理能力。【方法】提出了一种碳交易条件下基于基数约束不确定集的鲁棒电源规划模型。通过构建基数约束不确定情景集,并引入“不确定性预算”的概念定义最好、最坏情景,以减少不确定性的程度。基于对偶理论将具有maxmin-max三层规划结构的鲁棒模型转化为等价的混合整数线性规划,使用GAMS软件中的BARON求解器进行求解。【结果】碳交易成本能够促使更低的火电发电比例和更高的新能源发电比例。当不确定性预算越大时,目标函数值越低,决策风格越保守。【结论】碳交易条件下基于鲁棒优化的电源规划策略能够提高对不确定性参数的处理能力,规划结果具有鲁棒性和可行性,可在信息不确定的情况下为决策者提供决策支持。[Objectives]It is important to improve the processing ability of uncertain parameters in power planning.[Methods]A robust power planning model based on cardinality constrained uncertainty set under carbon trading condition was proposed.To reduce the degree of uncertainty,the uncertainty scenario set with cardinality constraints was constructed,and then the concept of“uncertainty budget”was introduced to redefine the best and worst scenarios.Based on duality theory,the robust model with max-min-max threelevel programming structure was transformed into equivalent mixed-integer linear programming,which was solved by Baron solver in GAMS.[Results]The cost of carbon trading can promote a lower proportion of thermal power generation and a higher proportion of renewable energy generation.When the uncertainty budget is larger,the objective function value is lower,and the decision-making style is more conservative.[Conclusions]The power planning strategy based on robust optimization under carbon trading conditions can improve the ability to handle uncertain parameters.The planning results are robust and feasible,providing decision support for decision-makers in situations of information uncertainty.

关 键 词：电源规划 不确定性 鲁棒优化 碳价 对偶理论 

分 类 号：TK01[动力工程及工程热物理] TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]