小南海库区生态系统生产总值变化预测与分析  

Prediction and analysis of gross ecosystem product changes in Xiaonanhai Reservoir Area

作　　者：郭佳玮 朱捷缘 杜建国 荣月静 王泽童 严岩[1] GUO Jiawei;ZHU Jieyuan;DU Jianguo;RONG Yuejing;WANG Zetong;YAN Yan(State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology,Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100085,China;College of Resources and Environment,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;Changjiang Survey,Planning,Design and Research Co.,Ltd.,Wuhan 430010,China;China Three Gorges Corporation,Beijing 100038,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院生态环境研究中心城市与区域生态国家重点实验室,北京100085 [2]中国科学院大学资源与环境学院,北京100049 [3]长江勘测规划设计研究有限责任公司,湖北武汉430010 [4]中国长江三峡集团有限公司,北京100038

出　　处：《人民长江》2024年第6期68-74,共7页Yangtze River

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(72174193);长江勘测规划设计研究有限责任公司开放创新基金项目(CX2021K01)。

摘　　要：目前处于研究论证阶段的小南海水电站是长江重庆河段内集交通、能源、水利等多重功能为一体的重大基础设施工程,是位于超大城市主城区的大型枢纽工程项目,受到广泛关注。为了系统地评估和预测该项目建设可能的生态效益和影响,参考生态系统生产总值的研究框架和方法,通过构建库区生态系统生产总值评估指标体系,综合运用影子价格法、机会成本法等方法预测水电站建设给库区生态系统生产总值带来的影响。结果表明:①水电站建设不仅可以助力重庆市防洪、供水和航运,还将推动生态系统生产总值提升和生态价值“外溢”,总体上水电站建设前后生态系统生产总值共增加56.86亿元,生态产品价值、生态调节服务价值和生态文化服务价值总量均呈现上升趋势。②水电价值升高趋势较为明显,预计提升50.88亿元/a,其次是休闲旅游价值,预计提升0.34亿元/a;自然景观价值提升约2.30亿元/a;水源涵养、洪水调蓄价值分别提升2.32亿元/a和1.28亿元/a。③水电站建设导致坝址上游水位抬升,林草面积被少量侵占,将对土壤保持价值有轻微影响,建议同步实施一江两岸青山工程水土保持措施,保障库区水土保持效益的维持与提升。从生态、经济、社会多维度评估权衡小南海水电站建设可能造成的库区生态系统结构和生态系统生产总值的变化,可以为水电站建设后的库区生态空间生态修复与绿色发展方向提供指引。The Xiaonanhai Hydropower Station is currently in the research and demonstration stage.It is a major infrastructure project integrating transportation,electricity generation,water conservancy,and other multi-functions in the Chongqing section of the Changjiang River.It is a unique large-scale hub project located in the main urban area of a mega-city,which receives extensive attention.To systematically assess and predict the possible ecological benefits and impacts of the construction of this project,we utilized the research framework and methodology of Gross Ecosystem Product.We predicted the impacts of hydropower station construction on the watershed gross water ecosystem product by constructing the ecosystem value assessment index system of the reservoir area and comprehensively applying the shadow price method,opportunity cost method,and other methods.The results indicated that:①The construction of the hydropower station will boost gross water ecosystem product and ecological value“spillover”in addition to its contribution to flood control,water supply,and navigation in Chongqing,the total value before and after the construction of hydropower station will increase 5.686 billion yuan,the total value of ecosystem products,ecological regulation services,ecological and cultural services will all present rising trends.②The increasing trend of hydropower value is rather obvious,which is expected to raise 5.088 billion yuan per year,followed by eco-tourism,which is expected to raise 34 million yuan per year;natural landscape value is expected to increase approximately 0.23 billion yuan per year;water conservation and flood storage are expected to raise 232 million and 128 million yuan per year,respectively.③Due to the construction of the hydropower station,the water level upstream of the dam site rises,and a small amount of forest and grass area will be occupied,which will have a slight impact on the soil conservation value.It is recommended to synchronize the implementation of soil and water conservation m

关 键 词：生态系统生产总值 土地利用变化 生态系统服务 可持续发展 小南海水电站 

分 类 号：X196[环境科学与工程—环境科学] F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]