川滇地区地震动预测模型研究  

Research on Earthquake Motion Prediction Models in the Sichuan-Yunnan Region of China

作　　者：雷德明 彭海斌 来庆辉 邹育麟 栗怀广[3] LEI Deming;PENG Haibin;LAI Qinghui;ZOU Yulin;LI Huaiguang(Sichuan Yanjiang Panzhihua-Ningnan Expressway Co.,Ltd.,Xichang,Sichuan 615000,China;Jianghan University State Key Laboratory of Precision Blasting jointly established by the province and ministry,Wuhan,Hubei 430056,China;School of Civil Engineering,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu,Sichuan 610000,China)

机构地区：[1]四川沿江攀宁高速公路有限公司,四川西昌615000 [2]江汉大学省部共建精细爆破国家重点实验室,湖北武汉430056 [3]西南交通大学土木工程学院,四川成都610000

出　　处：《山西地震》2024年第2期1-6,共6页Earthquake Research in Shanxi

基　　金：四川省交通运输科技项目(2018-ZL-01);国家自然科学基金(地震联合)重点项目(U2139207);科技部重点研发专项课题(2022YFB2302104)。

摘　　要：近年来随着强震台站的兴建,获得大量的真实地震动记录。为运用地震动记录开展更多研究,探讨建立川滇地区地震动预测模型。本文基于真实地震动记录和随机效应回归算法提出地震动预测模型思路;通过选取特定区域并收集地震动数据,建立地震动预测模型;利用残差分析法,研究地震动预测模型的性能;通过与国内外典型的地震动预测模型进行对比,论证所提方法的有效性。研究结果表明,提出的地震动预测模型能较好地预测地震动强度参数。In recent years,with the construction of strong motion stations,a large number of real earthquake motion records have been obtained.To utilize these records for further research,this paper discusses the establishment of an earthquake motion prediction model for the Sichuan-Yunnan region.Based on real earthquake motion records and a random effect regression algorithm,we propose a conceptual approach for an earthquake motion prediction model;by selecting a specific area and collecting earthquake motion data,we establish a prediction model;the performance of the earthquake motion prediction model is studied using residual analysis;by comparing with typical domestic and international earthquake motion prediction models,we demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.The results show that the proposed earthquake motion prediction model can predict the intensity parameters of earthquake motion well.

关 键 词：残差 真实地震动记录 随机效应 预测模型 

分 类 号：P315.3[天文地球—地震学]