中国女性肺癌发病率的空间分布特征分析  

Spatial distribution characteristics of lung cancer incidence in Chinese females

作　　者：黄振秋 黄子硕 张孟齐 李飞迪 丁城[3] 黄树辉[1] 黄宏[1,4] HUANG Zhenqiu;HUANG Zishuo;ZHANG Mengqi;LI Feidi;DING Cheng;HUANG Shuhui;HUANG Hong(School of Public Health and Management,Wenzhou Medical University,Wenzhou,Zhejiang 325035,China;Department of Nosocomial Infection,Stomatological Hospital Affiliated to Wenzhou Medical University,Wenzhou,Zhejiang 325035,China;Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine,The First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University,Wenzhou,Zhejiang 325035,China;Zhejiang Key Laboratory of Watershed Water Environment and Health Risk Research,Wenzhou,Zhejiang 325035,China)

机构地区：[1]温州医科大学公共卫生学院,浙江温州325035 [2]温州医科大学附属口腔医院院感科,浙江温州325035 [3]温州医科大学附属第一医院呼吸与危重症医学科,浙江温州325035 [4]浙江省流域水环境与健康风险研究重点实验室,浙江温州325035

出　　处：《中国农村卫生事业管理》2024年第5期375-380,共6页Chinese Rural Health Service Administration

基　　金：温州市基础性科研项目(S2020002)。

摘　　要：目的揭示中国女性肺癌发病率的空间异质性和空间聚集性,定量分析关键环境因素与肺癌发病率的关联性,为肺癌防控提供科学参考。方法通过《2017—2019中国肿瘤登记年报》收集中国女性肺癌发病率有关资料,从公共数据库中获取同时期NO2浓度、城镇化率、气温和地形高程共4个环境因素的数据。采用空间自相关分析揭示女性发病率的空间异质性,采用普通最小二乘法(Ordinary Least Squares,OLS)对环境影响因素进行多重共线性检验,运用地理加权回归(Geographically Weighted Regression,GWR)模型定量分析其与环境因素的关联性,并与OLS模型比较拟合效果。结果中国女性肺癌发病率呈东北部高、西南部低的空间分布格局。全局莫兰指数为0.60(P<0.001,Z=5.41),说明女性肺癌发病率呈空间聚集性分布。GWR模型结果显示,4个环境因素在不同地区对女性肺癌发病率的影响不同。GWR模型的AICc=80.09,R2=0.37,Adjusted R2=0.26,其拟合效果比OLS模型好。结论中国女性肺癌高发区域主要位于城市化、工业化程度高的地区,环境因素对女性肺癌发病率的影响存在空间差异。Objective This study aimed to reveal the spatial heterogeneity and spatial aggregation of lung cancer incidence in Chinese females,to quantitatively analyse the correlation between key environmental factors and the incidence of lung cancer,and to provide scientific reference for the prevention and control of lung cancer.Methods Information on the incidence rate of lung cancer in Chinese females was collected through the 2017-2019 Annual Report of China Tumour Registry,data on a total of four environmental factors,namely NO_2 concentration,urbanisation rate,air temperature and topographic elevation,were obtained from public databases for the same period.Spatial heterogeneity of female incidence rates was revealed using spatial autocorrelation analysis,the ordinary least squares(OLS)method was used to test for multicollinearity of environmental influences,and a geographically weighted regression(GWR)model was used to quantitatively analyse the association with environmental factors and compare the fitting effect with the OLS model.Result The incidence rate of female lung cancer in China showed a spatial distribution pattern of high in the northeast and low in the southwest.The global Moran index was 0.60(P<0.001,Z=5.41),indicating a spatially aggregated distribution of female lung cancer incidence.The results of the GWR model showed that the four environmental factors had different impacts on the incidence rate of female lung cancer in different regions.The AICc of the GWR model=80.09,R~2=0.37,Adjusted R~2=0.26,and its fitting effect was better than the OLS model.Conclusion The high-incidence areas of female lung cancer in China were mainly located in areas with high urbanisation and industrialisation,and there were spatial differences in the influence of environmental factors on the incidence of female lung cancer.

关 键 词：空间异质性 空间聚集性 空间自相关 地理加权回归 

分 类 号：R195.4[医药卫生—卫生统计学]