相依部件平均剩余强度的非参数贝叶斯估计  

Nonparametric Bayesian Estimation of Mean Remaining Strength of Dependent Components

作　　者：刘斌[1] 霍美玲 许靖 崔学英[1] 谢秀峰[1] LIU Bin;HUO Mei-ling;XU Jing;CUI Xue-ying;XIE Xiu-feng(School of Applied Science,Taiyuan University of Science and Technology,Taiyuan 030024,China)

机构地区：[1]太原科技大学应用科学学院,太原030024

出　　处：《太原科技大学学报》2024年第3期317-322,共6页Journal of Taiyuan University of Science and Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(11701406,11901134,12061091,11972019);山西省基础研究计划(202103021224274,201901 D111261),山西省社会经济统计科研课题(KY[2021]145).

摘　　要：应力-强度系统是一种普遍的系统结构,估计系统平均剩余强度时通常假设部件间相互独立。然而,基于部件独立假设会造成平均剩余强度估计的不准确。利用copula理论建立部件强度间的相依关系,得到了系统平均剩余强度的表达式。采用非参数贝叶斯方法估计了系统的平均剩余强度,对串联系统和并联系统数据进行蒙特卡罗模拟,验证了方法的有效性。结果表明,在部件强度相依的情况下,基于独立假定的串联系统平均剩余强度被低估,并联系统的平均剩余强度则被高估。因此,系统部件间的相依影响不能忽略。The stress-strength system is a general system structure,and the mean remaining strength of the system is usually estimated with the assumption that the components are independent of each other.However,this assumption can lead to inaccurate estimates of the mean remaining strength.In this paper,copula theory is used to establish the dependence relation between component strengths and the expression of the mean remaining strength of the system is obtained.Nonparametric Bayesian method is used to estimate the mean remaining strength of the system,and Monte Carlo simulation is performed on the data of series and parallel systems to verify the effectiveness of the method.The results show that the mean remaining strength of the series system is underestimated,and mean remaining strength of the parallel system is overestimated based on the independence assumption when the component strength is interdependent.Therefore,the effect of dependencies between system components cannot be ignored in practical applications.

关 键 词：应力-强度模型 非参数贝叶斯估计 平均剩余强度 相依部件强度 

分 类 号：O213.2[理学—概率论与数理统计]