海上丝绸之路环境影响船舶稳性安全分析方法  

Analytical method to determine the environmental impact on the stability safety of a bulk carrier navigating in the Maritime Silk Road

作　　者：孟祥乾 吴建军[1,2] 朱清华 胡甚平 朱鎏[1] MENG Xiangqian;WU Jianjun;ZHU Qinghua;HU Shenping;ZHU Liu(Merchant Marine College,Shanghai Maritime University,Shanghai 201306,China;National Engineering Research Center of Ship Transport Control System,Shanghai Ship and Shipping Research Institute,Shanghai 200135,China)

机构地区：[1]上海海事大学商船学院,上海201306 [2]上海船舶运输科学研究所有限公司船舶运输控制系统国家工程研究中心,上海200135

出　　处：《清华大学学报（自然科学版）》2024年第6期1060-1069,共10页Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology)

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(23YJAZH157)。

摘　　要：为了量化研究风浪因素对航行船舶横摇风险的影响,提出了一种面向航行环境的船舶稳性安全分析方法。基于Kriging插值与自适应加权平均方法,建立了海上丝绸之路航线风浪环境数据处理框架。结合历时22 a的海区气象资料,绘制了海上丝绸之路关键水域的船舶航行风险图,通过风浪环境要素对船舶横倾影响的定量分析,提出了评估船舶稳性安全的横倾风险指数。基于对典型船舶倾覆事故案例的分析模型重构,揭示了外部风浪环境对船舶稳性安全的影响。进一步开展同类货物运输案例的对照分析,发现了船舶内部环境对船舶稳性安全的影响,验证了船舶属性和货物性态在保证船舶稳性安全中的重要作用。船载货物性态的稳定性与船舶航行环境同等重要,应纳入船舶稳性安全影响体系。该研究对于建立以船舶航行安全为核心的海上丝绸之路航线交通韧性治理体系具有参考价值。[Objective]Since the proposal of the“21st Century Maritime Silk Road”,countries and regions along the route have been interconnected in various fields.The continuously improving maritime transportation facilities and equipment have guaranteed the efficient development of the regional economies along the route.However,the current traffic safety situation of the Maritime Silk Road continues to face challenges.Natural conditions and geographical environment are important factors that influence the safety of ship navigation and the efficient operation of shipping routes.The stability safety of ships is subject to the dual constraints of the ships stowage status and external wind and wave conditions.The natural conditions of navigable waters are complex and variable,and it is imperative to understand the marine climate and weather change characteristics of the route.To measure the impact of wind and wave factors on the rolling risk of ships during navigation,an analytical method to determine the environmental impact on stability safety of ship navigation is proposed.[Methods]A data processing framework for wind and wave environmental factors along the Maritime Silk Road was established based on the Kriging interpolation technology and the adaptive weighted average method.Combined with 22 years of meteorological data in the sea area,a navigation risk map for the key waters of the Maritime Silk Road was developed.Based on quantitative analysis of the influence of wind and wave environmental factors on ship heeling,the heeling risk index for evaluating ship stability safety was proposed.According to the model reconstruction of typical ship capsizing accidents,the impact of external wind and wave factors on ship stability safety was revealed.[Results]The results reveal the following:(1)The risk is high in the South China Sea,medium in the Arabian Sea,and low in the Bay of Bengal.(2)The navigation environment of the Maritime Silk Road route is significantly affected by typhoons:(a)During the typhoon season,there are hi

关 键 词：海上丝绸之路 船舶稳性安全 环境影响 横倾风险指数 货物性态 

分 类 号：U698.6[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]