去工业化对地方财政可持续性的影响  

The Impact of Deindustrialization on Fiscal Sustainability of Local Governments

作　　者：王展祥[1] 谢绍棋 王秋石[1] Wang Zhanxiang;Xie Shaoqi;Wang Qiushi

机构地区：[1]江西财经大学经济学院

出　　处：《财经科学》2024年第5期132-148,共17页Finance & Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“发展中大国去工业化经济风险的形成机理及预警防控研究”(22AJL015);江西省社会科学基金地区项目和南昌市经济社会发展重大招标课题“深入实施强省会战略提升南昌集聚能力研究”(23ZXDQ02&ZDSK202302);江西省人文社会科学研究2019年度项目“江西高质量发展与OFDI研究——基于中部崛起的视角”(JJ19107)的资助。

摘　　要：经济发展历史和一般规律表明,实体经济与制造业的高质量发展是政府财政的基石和保障。以工业产值或就业份额度量的去工业化将会使得财政收支发生变化,进而深刻影响地方政府的财政可持续性。基于263个地级市数据,运用动态面板模型实证分析去工业化对地方财政可持续性的影响。研究结果发现:去工业化显著降低了地方财政可持续性;其内在机理包括抑制劳动生产率提高、扩大税收流失规模和强化社会保障支出刚性。进一步研究发现,直接税比重超过门槛值时,去工业化对财政可持续性的不利影响将得到抑制;此外,地方政府适度参与税收竞争,有利于去工业化背景下财政可持续性的提升,而竞争强度超过门槛值时,则强化了去工业化对财政可持续性的负面影响。因此,地方政府应切实把经济发展的着力点放到实体经济尤其是制造业与工业的发展上来,需要采取有效措施保持制造业比重基本稳定、做好“增效”“堵漏”“节流”文章、统筹错位竞争与协同发展,不断巩固和提升地方财政可持续性。The history and general law of economic development show that the high-quality development of real economy and manu⁃facturing industry is the cornerstone and guarantee of government finance.Deindustrialization,measured by industrial output or em⁃ployment share,will cause fiscal revenue and expenditure changes,which will profoundly affect the fiscal sustainability of local gov⁃ernments.Based on the data of 263 prefecture-level cities,this paper empirically analyzes the impact of deindustrialization on local fiscal sustainability by using dynamic panel model.The results show that deindustrialization significantly reduces local fiscal sustain⁃ability,and its internal mechanisms include restraining labor productivity,expanding tax loss scale and strengthening social protec⁃tion expenditure rigidity.Further research shows that when the proportion of direct tax exceeds the threshold value,the adverse im⁃pact of deindustrialization on fiscal sustainability will be suppressed;in addition,the moderate participation of local governments in tax competition is conducive to the promotion of fiscal sustainability in the context of deindustrialization,while when the competition intensity exceeds the threshold value,the negative impact of deindustrialization on fiscal sustainability will be strengthened.There⁃fore,local governments should put the focus of economic development on the real economy,especially the development of manufac⁃turing industry and industry.They need to adopt various policies to keep the proportion of manufacturing industry basically stable,do a good job of“increasing efficiency”,“plugging”and“throttling”articles,coordinate misplaced competition and coordinated devel⁃opment,and constantly consolidate and enhance the sustainability of local finance.

关 键 词：去工业化 财政可持续性 税收流失 税收竞争 地方政府 

分 类 号：F432.1[经济管理—产业经济]