RMAPS模式预报总辐射的3种订正方法应用  

Application of three correction methods to global radiation of the RMAPS model

作　　者：赵文婧[1,2] 王小勇 李艳 刘抗[2] 景慧 叶培龙 闫昕旸[2] 何金梅 ZHAO Wen-jing;WANG Xiao-yong;LI Yan;LIU Kang;JING Hui;YE Pei-long;YAN Xin-yang;HE Jin-mei(College of Atmospheric Sciences,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,China;Meteorological Service Center of Gansu Province,Lanzhou 730020,China;Lanzhou Central Meteorological Observatory,Lanzhou 730020,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州大学大气科学学院,兰州730000 [2]甘肃省气象服务中心,兰州730020 [3]兰州中心气象台,兰州730020

出　　处：《兰州大学学报（自然科学版）》2024年第3期304-312,共9页Journal of Lanzhou University(Natural Sciences)

基　　金：甘肃省自然科学基金项目(23JRRA1574);甘肃省青年科技基金项目(23JRRA1326);甘肃省气象局创新团队项目(GSQXCXTD-2020-03);甘肃省重点研发计划-工业类项目(23YFGA0016)。

摘　　要：为降低光伏功率预测中预报总辐射误差且探讨各类订正方法的适用性,分季节对比分析逐步回归、支持向量机(SVM)和相似误差订正(AnBC)方法对快速更新多尺度分析和预报系统短期预报总辐射的订正效果.结果表明,订正后明显降低了预报误差,一定程度上改善了预报总辐射分布较分散和偏大的情况.酒泉鸿坤光伏电站秋季逐步回归订正效果相对最佳(平均绝对偏差(M_(AE))降低4.56 W/m^(2)),冬季、夏季和春季均是AnBC效果相对最佳(M_(AE)依次降低10.33、12.71、44.27 W/m^(2));敦煌电建汇能光伏电站秋季和冬季均是SVM订正效果相对最佳(M_(AE)分别降低4.73和7.85 W/m^(2)),夏季和春季均是AnBC效果相对最佳(M_(AE)分别降低16.24和34.17 W/m^(2)).两座电站逐小时误差分布显示AnBC效果相对最佳;就各季节相对最佳订正方法而言,订正后春季提高时次百分比最高(酒泉鸿坤为73.88%,电建汇能为77.28%).晴天SVM订正效果最明显,非晴天AnBC效果最明显.In order to reduce the error of global radiation forecast and discuss the applicability of various correction methods,the correction effect of stepwise regression,support vector machine (SVM) and analog bias correction (AnBC) method were compared in four seasons,demonstrating that the correction results obviously reduced the forecast error,and the situations that global radiation forecast was larger and its distribution more dispersed were improved to some extent.The correction effect of stepwise regression model was best in autumn at Jiuquan Hongkun photovoltaic power station with a reduction of the mean absolute deviation (M_(AE)) of 4.56 W/m~2.While the effect of AnBC method was the best in winter,summer and spring,with a reduction of M_(AE) of 10.33,12.71 and 44.27 W/m~2.For Dunhuang Huineng photovoltaic power station,the correction effect of SVM was the best in autumn and winter with a reduction of M_(AE) of 4.73 and 7.85 W/m~2.In spring and summer,the effect of AnBC method was the best,M_(AE )decreased by 16.24 and 34.17 W/m~2.Hourly error distribution of the two power stations showed that the AnBC method was superior.In terms of the best correction method in each season,spring had the highest percentage of times improvement,with 73.88%at Jiuquan Hongkun and 77.28%at Dunhuang Huineng.SVM correction method was most effective on sunny days,while the AnBC method on non-sunny days.

关 键 词：快速更新多尺度分析和预报系统 总辐射 逐步回归 支持向量机 相似误差订正 

分 类 号：P456.9[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]