2002-2021年浙江省宁波市老年痴呆死亡趋势分析  

Analysis on the mortality trend of senior dementia in Ningbo of Zhejiang Province from 2002 to 2021

作　　者：孙家盛 陈翔[1] 应佳颖 楼望伟[1] 王永[2] SUN Jiasheng;CHEN Xiang;YING Jiaying;LOU Wangwei;WANG Yong(Department of Chronic Disease and Health Education,Ninghai Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Ningbo,Zhejiang Province 315600,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]宁海县疾病预防控制中心慢性病与健康教育科,浙江省宁波315600 [2]宁波市疾病预防控制中心慢性非传染性疾病防制所,浙江省宁波315010

出　　处：《中国慢性病预防与控制》2024年第4期277-281,共5页Chinese Journal of Prevention and Control of Chronic Diseases

基　　金：宁波市医学重点学科(2022-B18);宁波市公益类科技计划项目(2021S164);浙江省宁海县2022年社会发展类科技项目(2201)。

摘　　要：目的了解2002—2021年宁波市老年痴呆的死亡情况及其影响因素,为制定老年痴呆的防控策略提供科学依据。方法收集2002—2021年宁波市所有根本死因为老年痴呆的死亡病例数据和同期户籍人口数据,采用SPSS 20.0计算老年痴呆的粗死亡率、中国人口标化率(中标率)和世界人口标化率(世标率)。利用Joinpoint 4.9.1.0软件计算平均年度变化百分比(AAPC),分析老年痴呆死亡率变化趋势。采用差别分解法计算人口结构老化和非人口学因素改变对死亡率的增加值和贡献率。结果2002—2021年,宁波市根本死因为老年痴呆的死亡病例为8617例,粗死亡率为38.43/10万,中标率为33.44/10万,世标率为44.25/10万,粗死亡率、世标率呈下降趋势,AAPC值分别为-1.08%、-1.48%(P<0.05)。2002—2021年,男性、女性中标率均呈下降趋势,AAPC值分别为-1.59%、-1.65%(P<0.05)。但老年痴呆的男性中标率(25.95/10万)低于女性(40.87/10万),差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。2002—2021年,农村的老年痴呆中标率变化趋势无统计学意义,AAPC值为-0.98%(P>0.05);城市中标率呈下降趋势,AAPC值为-3.33%(P<0.05)。老年痴呆的城市中标率(28.90/10万)低于农村(36.42/10万),差异有统计学意义(χ^(2)=89.826,P<0.05)。2002—2021年,70~<80岁组的老年痴呆粗死亡率呈下降趋势,AAPC值为-3.29%(P<0.05)。总人群的2021年老年痴呆粗死亡率与2002年的差别为2.19/10万。人口老龄化对死亡率的增加值为6.59/10万,贡献率为300.65%;非人口学因素改变对死亡率的增加值为-4.40/10万,贡献率为-200.65%。结论人口结构老化可能引起老年痴呆死亡率升高,其他非人口学因素改变可能会导致死亡率下降。宁波市老年痴呆死亡率呈现逐年下降趋势,应积极探索女性、农村和高年龄组老年痴呆患者的防治策略,采取针对性的手段以提高患者的生存质量和降低死亡率。Objective To analyze the mortality and its influencing factors of senior dementia in Ningbo from 2002 to 2021,and provide the scientific basis for formulating the prevention and control strategy of senior dementia.Methods The data of all death cases caused by senior dementia and the registered population in the same period of Ningbo from 2002 to 2021 were collected.The crude mortality caused by senior dementia,the standardized rates of the Chinese population(China rate)and the standardized rates of the world population(world rate)were calculated.The used software was SPSS 20.0.Joinpoint 4.9.1.0 software was used to calculate the average annual percent change(AAPC),and analyze the mortality trend caused by senior dementia.The differential decomposition method was used to calculate the added value and contribution of demographic aging and non-demographic factors to mortality.Results From 2002 to 2021,there were 8617 death cases caused by senior dementia in Ningbo,the crude mortality was 38.43/105,the China rate was 33.44/105 and the world rate was 44.25/105.The crude mortality and the world rate showed a downward trend.The AAPC values were-1.08%and-1.48%(P<0.05),respectively.From 2002 to 2021,the China rates of males and females showed a downtrend,AAPC values were-1.59%and-1.65%,respectively(P<0.05).But the China rate(25.95/105)of senior dementia in males was significantly lower than that(40.87/105)in females(P<0.05).From 2002 to 2021,there was no significant change of China rate of senior dementia in rural area,AAPC value was-0.98%(P>0.05);China rate of senior dementia in urban area showed a downtrend,AAPC value was-3.33%(P<0.05).China rate(28.90/105)of senior dementia in urban area was significantly lower that that(36.42/105)in rural area(P<0.05).From 2002 to 2021,the crude mortality of senior dementia in 70-<80 years old group showed a downtrend,AAPC value was-3.29%(P<0.05).The difference between the crude mortality of senior dementia in all population in 2021 and 2002 was 2.19/105.The added value of population

关 键 词：老年痴呆 死亡率 平均年度变化百分比 差别分解法 

分 类 号：R749.1[医药卫生—神经病学与精神病学]