2007-2021年南京市肺癌死亡趋势及其对期望寿命的影响  

Lung cancer death trend and its impact on life expectancy in Nanjing from 2007 to 2021

作　　者：周海茸[1] 王巍巍 王琛琛[1] 洪忻[1] ZHOU Hairong;WANG Weiwei;WANG Chenchen;HONG Xin(Department of Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention,Nanjing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Nanjing,Jiangsu Province 210003,China)

机构地区：[1]南京市疾病预防控制中心慢性非传染病防制科,江苏省南京210003

出　　处：《中国慢性病预防与控制》2024年第4期282-286,共5页Chinese Journal of Prevention and Control of Chronic Diseases

基　　金：南京市医学科技发展项目(YKK21175)。

摘　　要：目的了解南京市2007—2021年肺癌死亡率变化趋势及其对期望寿命变化的影响,为制定肺癌综合防控策略提供依据。方法利用南京市死因监测系统收集的2007—2021年户籍人口肺癌死亡资料,计算肺癌死亡率、标化死亡率、去死因期望寿命(CELE)和去死因期望寿命增长年(PGLEs),采用Joinpoint 4.6.0.0软件计算年度平均变化百分比(AAPC),采用Arriaga's分解法估计各年龄组肺癌死亡率变化对期望寿命变化的影响。结果南京市肺癌标化死亡率由2007年的34.00/10万下降至2021年的19.29/10万,呈下降趋势(AAPC=-3.76%,P<0.01),肺癌死亡率变化对期望寿命增长呈“正向贡献”,贡献了0.416岁,占期望寿命增长的5.785%。25~29岁年龄组肺癌死亡率变化导致南京市居民期望寿命减少0.001岁,占期望寿命增量的-0.009%,对期望寿命增长呈“负向贡献”,其他各年龄组均呈“正向贡献”,其中对期望寿命正向贡献最大的是75~79岁年龄组,该年龄组肺癌死亡率下降导致期望寿命增加0.079岁,占期望寿命增长的1.099%。南京市居民期望寿命从2007年的76.88岁增长至2021年84.07岁,增长了7.19岁,呈上升趋势(AAPC=0.66%,P<0.05),肺癌CELE增长了7.32岁(AAPC=0.67%,P<0.05),PGLEs呈平稳趋势(AAPC=1.55%,P=0.08),肺癌导致的寿命损失率上升了8.43%(AAPC=0.82%,P<0.05)。结论2007—2021年南京市肺癌标化死亡率下降,肺癌死亡率变化对期望寿命增长起到积极作用,而因肺癌死亡导致的寿命损失呈上升趋势,提示肺癌对南京市居民健康的影响更加严重,应针对重点人群加强肺癌综合防控干预,进一步提升居民期望寿命。Objective To explore the change trend and its impact on life expectancy of lung cancer mortality in Nanjing from 2007 to 2021,and provide the basis for developing the comprehensive preventive and control strategy of lung cancer.Methods Lung cancer death data collected from 2007 to 2021 by Nanjing cause of death monitoring system were used to calculate the mortality rate,standardized mortality rate,cause eliminated life expectancy(CELE)and potential gains in life expectancy(PGLEs),Joinpoint 4.6.0.0 software was used to calculate the average annual percentage change(AAPC).Arriaga's decomposition method was used to estimate the influence of lung cancer mortality change on life expectancy in all age groups.Results The standardized mortality of lung cancer in Nanjing decreased from 34.00/105 in 2007 to 19.29/105 in 2021,AAPC was-3.76%(P<0.01).The change of lung cancer mortality had the positive contribution to life expectancy gain,which contributed 0.416 years to the life expectancy gain(5.785%).In 25-29 years old group,the lung cancer mortality change had the negative contribution to life expectancy gain(-0.001 years,-0.009%);in other age groups,the lung cancer mortality change showed the positive contribution to the life expectancy gain;the positive contribution in 75-79 years old group was the greatest,the lung cancer mortality decrease resulted in increased 0.079 years old of life expectancy gain(1.099%).The life expectancy of Nanjing residents increased from 76.88 years old in 2007 to 84.07 years old in 2021,increasing 7.19 years(AAPC=0.66%,P<0.05),the lung cancer CELE increased by 7.32 years(AAPC=0.67%,P<0.05),the PGLEs showed a steady trend(AAPC=1.55%,P=0.08),and life loss rate increased by 8.43%(AAPC=0.82%,P<0.05)due to lung cancer.Conclusion From 2007 to 2021,the standardized mortality rate of lung cancer in Nanjing decreased,which positively contributed to the increase in life expectancy.However,the trend of life expectancy loss due to lung cancer deaths is on the rise,indicating a more serious impact of lun

关 键 词：肺癌 死亡率 期望寿命分解 去死因期望寿命 去死因期望寿命增长年 

分 类 号：R734.2[医药卫生—肿瘤]