基于组合模型的沥青路面使用性能预测研究  

Study on Prediction of Asphalt Pavement Performance Based on Combination Model

作　　者：杨娥[1] 谭羽彤 黄昆泓 朱祖新 刘宏鑫 YANG E;TAN Yu-tong;HUANG Kun-hong;ZHU Zu-xin;LIU Hong-xin(School of Civil Engineering and Engineering Management,Guangzhou Maritime University,Guangzhou Guangdong 510725,China)

机构地区：[1]广州航海学院土木与工程管理学院,广东广州510725

出　　处：《广州航海学院学报》2024年第2期69-74,共6页Journal of Guangzhou Maritime University

基　　金：大学生创新创业训练计划项目(S20240107);广东省教育厅项目(2023KTSCX111)。

摘　　要：为精确预测沥青路面性能的衰减趋势,以便合理确定道路养护的时机和方案,综合灰色模型与马尔科夫模型的优势,构建灰色马尔科夫链的组合模型,对不同沥青路面的性能指标进行预测,并以某实际道路为例,探讨两种模型的预测特性和适用范围,同时比较两种模型的预测精度差异.研究结果表明:灰色理论模型在具备历史路面性能数据的情况下,对PCI的预测精度达到一级,预测结果可靠;对于性能较好的路段,预测精度更高;在预测性能较差的路段时,精度提升显著,表明组合模型适用范围更广,更适合长期预测.In order to accurately predict the attenuation trend of asphalt pavement performance,so as to reasonably determine the timing and scheme of road maintenance,the combination model of Grey Markov chain is constructed by integrating the advantages of grey model and Markov model.The model predicts the performance indexes of different asphalt pavements.Taking a real road as an example,the prediction characteristics and application scope of the two models are discussed,and the prediction accuracy differences of the two models are compared.The results show that the prediction accuracy of the grey theory model for PCI reaches the first level and the prediction result is reliable when the historical pavement performance data are available;For the road with better performance,the prediction accuracy is higher;When the prediction performance is poor,the accuracy is significantly improved,indicating that the combined model has a wider application range and is more suitable for long-term prediction.

关 键 词：灰色理论 马尔科夫模型 路面性能 

分 类 号：U416.217[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]