疫情背景下考虑社会学习的竞争防疫产品供应中断研究  

Research on Supply Disruption of Epidemic Prevention Products Considering Product Competition and Social Learning under COVID-19

作　　者：石松[1] 石平[2] Shi Song;Shi Ping(School of Business Administration,Guangxi University,Nanning 530004,China;School of Management,Guangdong University of Technology,Guangzhou 510520,China)

机构地区：[1]广西大学工商管理学院,广西南宁530004 [2]广东工业大学管理学院,广东广州510520

出　　处：《中国管理科学》2024年第5期171-178,共8页Chinese Journal of Management Science

基　　金：广西壮族自治区哲学社会科学规划研究课题(23CGL013);国家自然科学基金项目(71801053);湖南省自然科学基金项目(2023JJ30420);广东省基础与应用基础研究基金项目(2023A1515030111)。

摘　　要：在重大突发公共卫生事件爆发时,医疗防护产品将会出现供应中断风险。针对市场中存在两种相互竞争的不同防护等级的医疗防护产品,考虑产品供应中断风险和消费者社会学习行为,构建博弈模型研究消费者社会学习行为对消费者需求及零售商运营决策的影响。研究发现:当消费者缺货先验概率较高时,消费者会选择购买更多防护等级更高的产品,且消费者需求会受到消费者社会学习强度和不同防护等级产品价格差异影响;当不同防护等级产品价格差异较大时,消费者社会学习行为不会影响零售商第一期防护等级更高产品的订货量,而当产品价格差异较小时,零售商两个销售周期的订货量均会受到消费者社会学习行为影响;无论零售商库存能力如何,当产品价格差异过大或过小时,消费者社会学习行为不会提升零售商的利润,当产品价格差异处于适中水平时,消费者社会学习行为可以提升零售商的利润。In the context of major public health emergency,in view of the existence of two competing medical protection products with different protection levels in the market,a game model is constructed to study the impact of consumers'social learning on supply chain decisions based on the interruption of product supply and the prior probability of consumer shortages.In order to characterize the demand function under social learning and product supply interruption,consumers are divided into two batches in the first sales cycle.When consum⁃ers have social learning behaviors,the second batch of consumers decide whether to buy higher protection level products based on the posterior probability of out-of-stock,which is formed by the prior probability of out-ofstock and the purchase strategy of the first batch of consumers,and the probability of supply interruption.If consumers do not have social learning,the first and second batch of consumers make decision both rely on their prior probability of stock-out and the probability of supply interruption.Research results show that:Consumers will choose to buy more products with higher protection level when they have a higher priori probability of being out-of-stock,and consumer demand also affected by the intensity of consumer social learning and the price differ⁃ence between the two products.For retailers,when the product price difference is large,social learning will not affect the order quantity of higher protection level product in first sales cycle,and when the product price differ⁃ence is small,the product order quantity will affect by social learning.Regardless of size of inventory capacity,when product price difference is too large or too small,social learning will not increase the profit of the supply chain,when price difference is at a moderate level,social learning can improve the supply chain profit.Finally,a numerical simulation example is used to analyze and verify the research results,and it could show the research conclusions more intuitively.The research in th

关 键 词：突发公共卫生事件 防护产品 社会学习 产品竞争 先验概率 

分 类 号：F274[经济管理—企业管理] F272.3[经济管理—国民经济]