在“运用未来”中创生新未来——未来素养的内涵、本体论基础及其意义  

Creating New Futures through“Using the Future”: The Connotation,Ontological Basis, and Significance of Futures Literacy

作　　者：卜玉华[1] 朱琳 Bu Yuhua;Zhu Lin(the Institute of Schooling Reform and Development,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200062;the Department of Education,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200062)

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学基础教育改革与发展研究所,上海200062 [2]华东师范大学教育学系,上海200062

出　　处：《中国远程教育》2024年第6期34-47,共14页Chinese Journal of Distance Education

基　　金：国家社会科学基金“十四五”规划2021年度教育学重大课题“未来学校组织形态与制度重构的理论与实践研究”(课题编号:VFA210006)。

摘　　要：未来素养是最近十多年里由联合国教育、科学及文化组织(United Nations Educational,Scientific and Cultural Organization,UNESCO)牵头推动而日益被国际社会广泛熟知的一个概念,代表着一种未来研究新范式的产生。从背景上看,未来素养的产生是基于学者们对未来社会转型性质的判断、传统预测型范式在当代受到质疑,以及以米勒为代表的一批未来学者对预测型未来研究的反思与重构;从内涵上看,未来素养指的是一种运用未来的预期能力,人的“预期假设”理解水平决定了人的未来素养类型;从理论基础上看,预期系统理论是其本体论基础,这种理论证成了人何以能够运用尚不存在的未来,也证成了个人和组织具备未来素养的必要性;从未来意义上看,未来素养是现代人应具备的基础性能力,是人类走向自由的工具,也是一种重要的社会力量,有助于引导人类摆脱关于工业社会的主流叙事,拥抱新的行动可能性,有助于个体能动性的发挥,促进个体积极地拥抱未来,也有助于人类与不确定性之间建立一种积极关系;从未来前景上看,未来素养已成为联合国教科文组织的一项计划,正呈现出全球化发展之势。为此,我们有必要主动了解并积极参与到这一理念及其计划中去。“Futures Literacy”is a concept that has been promoted by UNESCO and has become increasingly widely known by the international community over the past decade.It represents the emergence of a new paradigm in futures studies.From a background perspective,the genesis of Futures Literacy is based on scholars’judgments about the transformative nature of future societies,the questioning of traditional predictive paradigms in contemporary times,the reflection,and reconstruction of predictive future studies by futurists like Riel Miller.In terms of its connotation,Futures Literacy refers to the anticipatory capacity to“use the future”.The level of understanding of the“Anticipatory Assumptions”determines the types of one’s Futures Literacy.Theoretically,Anticipatory System theory forms its ontological basis,validating how individuals can utilize the yet-to-exist future and proving the necessity for individuals and organizations to possess Futures Literacy.Regarding its significance for the future,Futures Literacy is a fundamental capacity that modern people should have,a tool for humanity to move towards freedom,and an important social force.It helps guide humanity away from mainstream narratives of industrial society and to embrace new possibilities for action.It aids in the activation of individual agency,encouraging individuals to positively embrace the future,and furthermore,fostering a positive relationship between humans and uncertainty.Looking ahead,“Futures Literacy”has become a UNESCO project and is showing a trend of global development.Therefore,it is essential for us to understand its connotation and actively engage in its associated projects.

关 键 词：未来素养 运用未来 预期系统理论 未来研究 

分 类 号：G511[文化科学—教育学]