贝叶斯推断视角的系统调控内涵与策略研究  

Study on mechanism and strategy of system control and regulation from the perspective of Bayesian theory

作　　者：李珮璘[1] 黄国群[2] LI Peilin;HUANG Guoqun(Institute of World Economy of Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences,Shanghai 200020,China;Intellectual Property School of East China University of Political Science and Law,Shanghai 201620,China)

机构地区：[1]上海社会科学院世界经济研究所,上海200020 [2]华东政法大学知识产权学院,上海201620

出　　处：《未来与发展》2024年第6期24-29,40,共7页Future and Development

摘　　要：系统调控思想是融合一般系统理论及复杂系统自组织等理论,倡导通过建构与演化结合,对系统整体进行调控与管理,从而达至系统目标及实现系统和谐有序的一种理论。系统调控思想在认知及推断角度与贝叶斯推断有异曲同工之妙。贝叶斯推断的认识论意蕴及演绎与归纳确证逻辑从逻辑角度分析并论证了系统调控思想中建构及演化策略结合的必要性,为系统调控思想提供了理论基础。基于贝叶斯推断视角,文中给出增强先验知识、加强过程学习等5类调控策略。System control and regulation thought is from general system theory combined with self-organization theory in complex system,proposes through the combination of construction and evolution,to realize regulation and management the system as a whole,thus achieve the goal and get the result of a harmonious and orderly system.System control and regulation thought have different approaches but equally satisfactory results of the wonderful in cognition and inference with Bayesian theory perspective.The deductive and inductive justification logic of Bayesian theory from a logical point of view proves the rationality of system control thought construction and evolution strategy,which provides the theoretical basis for the system of regulation ideas.Based on Bayesian theory perspective,five regulations strategies including increasing prior knowledge and strengthening the process of learning are proposed in this paper.

关 键 词：系统调控思想 贝叶斯推断 先验分布 复杂系统 

分 类 号：N940[自然科学总论—系统科学]