基于模型预测控制的高比例可再生能源电力系统多时间尺度动态可靠优化调度  

MULTI-TIME SCALE DYNAMIC RELIABLE OPTIMALSCHEDULING OF POWER SYSTEM WITH HIGH PROPOTTIONRENEWABLE ENERGY BASED ON MODEL PREDICTIVE CONTROL

作　　者：罗政杰 任惠[1] 辛国雨 卢锦玲[1] 王飞[1] Luo Zhengjie;Ren Hui;Xin Guoyu;Lu Jinling;Wang Fei(Department of Electrical Engineering,North China Electric Power University,Baoding 071003,China;State Grid Hebei Electric Power Co.,Ltd.,Hengshui Power Supply Company,Hengshui 053000,China)

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学电气与电子工程学院,保定071003 [2]国网河北电力有限公司衡水供电公司,衡水053000

出　　处：《太阳能学报》2024年第6期150-160,共11页Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica

摘　　要：提出基于模型预测控制的高比例可再生能源电力系统多时间尺度动态可靠优化调度方法,通过日前优化调度、日内滚动优化、运行风险计算及反馈校正几个环节,对可再生能源发电和系统内可调资源进行最优调度。日内实时调度阶段,基于日前调度计划和实时运行状况,采用回归预测算法,自适应选择重要变量预测系统未来运行状态,通过吉布斯抽样得到关键变量的概率密度,快速量化系统下一时刻的运行风险,并将风险反馈至日内滚动优化阶段,重复进行可靠优化调度。仿真算例结果验证所提方法的适应性和可行性。The ouput uncertainty of renewable generation and the fluctuation of load require integrated risk evaluation and optimal scheduling based on the real-time operation state of the system.Through the timely warning of the operational risk and adjusting the current control strategy accordingly,the safety and economy of power grid operation is coordinated and ensured.This paper presents a multi-time scale dynamic reliable optimal dispatch method for high proportion renewable energy power systems based on Model Predictive Control.The reliable optimal dispatch of electric system with high share of renewables is carried out through day ahead predictive optimal dispatching,day rolling optimal regulation,operation risk assessment and feedback correction of renewable generations and adjustable resources in the system.In the intra-day stage,based on the day ahead scheduling plan and real-time operation status,regression prediction algorithm is used to adaptively select key variables to predict the future operation status of the system.The probability density of representative variable is obtained through Gibbs sampling,which can quickly quantify the operation risk of the system at the next moment.The risk is then feedback to the day rolling optimal regulation to perform repeated reliable optimal scheduling.The simulation results verify the adaptability and feasibility of the proposed method.

关 键 词：模型预测控制 可再生能源 多时间尺度 动态可靠优化调度 回归预测 

分 类 号：TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]