中国式现代化在民族地区的经济表现  

Economic Performance of Chinese-style Modernization in Ethnic Areas

作　　者：丁赛[1] DING Sai(Institute of Ethnology and Anthropology,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100081)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院民族学与人类学研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《中央民族大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2024年第3期123-134,共12页Journal of Minzu University of China(Philosophy and Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“民族地区现代化的发展逻辑和现实难点研究”(项目编号:22VMZ001)的阶段性成果;中国社会科学院民族语言文化行为领域知识挖掘与服务实验室成果。

摘　　要：在中国式现代化推进过程中,对民族地区长期经济增长的阶段性分析是预测民族地区经济现代化趋势并有助于政策制定的重要内容。本文采用系统动力学的分析方式,从经济均衡出发,将民族地区经济增长和经济增长收敛、发散的特征相联系,基于民族八省区和85个地市州人均经济增长的描述性统计结果和方差条件检验统计结果,分析研究了民族地区1981—2021年的经济增长的状态跃迁。主要结论有:第一,民族地区1981—2021年的经济发展系统中存在不断向上的状态跃迁;第二,民族地区1981—2021年经济发展系统的第一次明显的向上跃迁表现出与全国经济跃迁同步的特点;第三,西部大开发战略引领了民族地区经济增长的第二次跃迁;第四,民族地区2017—2021年具有状态跃迁的特点,但因数据有限,无法真正判断是否实现了状态跃迁。In the process of promoting Chinese modernization,the stage analysis of the long-term economic growth of ethnic areas is an important content to predict the trend of economic modernization of ethnic areas and also contribute to policy formulation.This paper adopts the analysis of system dynamics,starting from the economic equilibrium,relates the economic growth and economic growth convergence,divergence.Based on the eight provinces and 85 cities per capita economic growth of descriptive statistical results and variance condition test results,the artcle makes analysis and studies the state transition of economic growth in ethnic areas from 1981 to 2021.The main conclusions are as follows:firstly,there is a continuous upward transition in the economic development system of ethnic areas from 1981 to 2021;secondly,the first obvious upward transition of the economic development system in the ethnic areas from 1981 to 2021 shows the characteristics of synchronization with the national economic transition;thirdly,the western development strategy has led the second transition of economic growth in ethnic areas;fourthly,the ethnic areas are characterized by a status transition feature from 2017 to 2021,but due to the limited data,it is impossible to truly judge whether the status transition has been realized.

关 键 词：国家发展战略 经济增长 状态跃迁 李雅普诺夫指数 

分 类 号：F120.4[经济管理—世界经济]