基于需求层次理论的城市公共交通发展战略研究  

Strategy Research on Urban Public Transport Development Based on Demand Hierarchy Theory

作　　者：左忠义[1] 周子童 ZUO Zhongyi;ZHOU Zitong(School of Traffic and Transportation Engineering,Dalian Jiaotong University,Dalian 116028,China)

机构地区：[1]大连交通大学交通运输工程学院,辽宁大连116028

出　　处：《大连交通大学学报》2024年第3期23-30,共8页Journal of Dalian Jiaotong University

基　　金：辽宁省科学技术计划项目(2021JH4/10100061);辽宁省教育厅基本科研项目(JYTMS20230007)。

摘　　要：针对目前城市交通供需结构不平衡的问题,以马斯洛需求层次理论模型为参考,结合城市交通需求和供给特性,分析其供求关系及层次结构,提出城市交通供需的响应关系和理想化城市交通出行结构。考虑时间、经济、舒适度等交通需求因素和环境、运营、基础设施、能耗等交通供给资源,以现状需求、资源、环境污染、运营、发展规模、时间为约束,从宏观和微观两个角度构建双层规划模型。以大连市为研究对象,基于现有交通出行结构开展成本分析,计算现有出行需求情况下,大连市城市交通结构的适宜比例,并将计算结果与现有出行结构进行比较。研究表明,优化的出行结构可以更好地满足现有城市交通的出行需求,满足城市交通可持续发展的目标,研究结果可为今后大连市公共交通发展提供参考。Aiming at the current imbalance of urban transportation supply and demand structure,taking Maslow's hierarchy of demand theory model as a reference,combined with urban transportation demand and supply characteristics,this paper analyzes its supply and demand relationship and hierarchy,and proposes the response relationship between urban transportation supply and demand and idealized urban transportation travel structure.Considering transportation demand factors such as time,economy,comfort and transportation supply resources such as environment,operation,infrastructure and energy consumption,a bi-level programming is constructed from the macro and micro perspectives based on the constraints of current demand,resources,pollution threshold,operation,development scale and time.Taking Dalian as the research object,the cost to calculate the reasonable proportion of urban traffic structure in Dalian under the existing travel demand is analyzed,and the existing travel structure is compared.The analysis shows that the optimized proportion of the travel structure can better meet the travel needs of existing urban transportation and achieve the goal of sustainable development of urban transportation.In view of the optimization results,the proportion of urban public transportation has increased,and the development strategy of Dalian public transportation is proposed to provide a reference for the future development of public transportation in Dalian.

关 键 词：城市交通 交通结构 广义出行费用 交通需求 需求层次理论 

分 类 号：U491.17[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]