碳排放权交易试点对城市工业低碳转型的影响  

Impact of Carbon Emission Trading Pilots on the Low-Carbon Transformation of Urban Industries

作　　者：罗良文[1] 孙立雪 王晨 LUO Liangwen;SUN Lixue;WANG Chen(School of Economics,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law,Wuhan 430073,China)

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学经济学院,湖北武汉430073

出　　处：《华东经济管理》2024年第7期39-52,共14页East China Economic Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“新发展格局下中国经济韧性的形成机理、动态评价与政策协同研究”(21&ZD072);中南财经政法大学研究生科研创新平台项目“碳排放权交易试点对工业低碳转型的影响研究”(202410311)。

摘　　要：文章基于2006—2020年中国254个城市面板数据,采用双向固定效应模型和双重机器学习模型评估碳排放权交易试点对城市工业低碳转型的影响机制。研究发现:碳排放权交易试点能够促进城市工业低碳转型,但是辐射范围存在距离衰减效应;异质性研究显示,初始排放配额采用无偿分配的试点城市拥有更好的转型效果,北京和上海碳试点具有积极辐射作用,而广东、深圳和重庆碳试点则呈现消极辐射影响;空间检验结果显示,碳排放权交易试点对其他地区工业低碳转型会产生消极的空间溢出效应;机制研究结果显示,碳排放权交易试点的运行通过拓宽碳交易覆盖面影响工业低碳转型效果,但碳交易频率的增加并不会直接影响工业低碳转型的发展。Based on panel data from 254 Chinese cities between 2006 and 2020,this paper employs a two-way fixed effects model and a double machine learning model to evaluate the impact mechanisms of carbon emission trading pilots on the low-carbon transformation of urban industries.Research findings:Carbon emission trading pilots can promote low-carbon transitions in urban industries,but their spillover effect diminishes with distance.Heterogeneity studies show that pilot cities using free allocation of initial emission quotas experience better transition outcomes.The carbon trading pilots in Beijing and Shanghai have a positive spillover effect,while those in Guangdong,Shenzhen,and Chongqing exhibit negative spillover effects.Spatial analysis indicates that carbon emission trading pilots have a negative spatial spillover effect on the low-carbon transition of industries in other regions.Mechanism studies reveal that the effectiveness of industrial low-carbon transitions is influenced by the expansion of carbon trading coverage,although an increase in trading frequency does not directly affect the development of low-carbon transitions in industries.

关 键 词：碳排放权交易试点 工业低碳转型 双重机器学习模型 GML指数 距离衰减效应 

分 类 号：X196[环境科学与工程—环境科学] F832.5[经济管理—金融学] F424