考虑个体偏好异质性的定制公交选择行为  

Study on Customized Bus Choice Behavior Considering Individual Preference Heterogeneity

作　　者：刘锴[1] 王静 王江波[1] 冯涛[3,4] 侯悦 LIU Kai;WANG Jing;WANG Jiang-bo;FENG Tao;HOU Yue(School of Economies and Management,Dalian University of Technology,Dalian 116024,Liaoning,China;School of Transportation and Logistics,Dalian University of Technology,Dalian 116024,Liaoning,China;Urban and Data Science Lab,Hiroshima University,Higashi-Hiroshima 734-8511,Hiroshima,Japan;Graduate School of Advanced Science and Engineering,Hiroshima University,Higashi-Hiroshima 734-8511,Hiroshima,Japan)

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学经济管理学院,辽宁大连116024 [2]大连理工大学交通运输学院,辽宁大连116024 [3]广岛大学城市与数据科学实验室,广岛东广岛739-8511 [4]广岛大学先进理工系科学研究科,广岛东广岛739-8511

出　　处：《中国公路学报》2024年第6期279-287,共9页China Journal of Highway and Transport

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71871043)。

摘　　要：定制公交需求响应策略往往把出行者看成均一特征群体,忽视了出行者选择偏好异质性。为探究多样化需求下的定制公交选择行为机理,并充分挖掘不可观测变量影响,结合定制公交运营特性,构建了反映便捷性、舒适性和可靠性的心理潜变量,并将其作为解释变量加入Mixed Logit模型形成混合选择模型。在大连市运营的30条定制公交线路开展跟车问卷调查,采用实证数据研究定制公交运营特征,量化分析多类型属性对定制公交选择行为的影响。结果表明:定制公交对中高收入的中青年女性群体更有吸引力;可靠性与行程时间等传统服务水平变量对出行选择具有同等重要的影响,基于大连市数据得到出行者平均认知可靠性的效用与减少6.15 min行程时间的效用等同,出行者感知可靠性评价每提升一个等级,定制公交选择概率将增长为原来的1.09倍。混合选择模型比传统Logit模型对实证数据有更高拟合度,预测结果也更为稳健,出行者对行程时间、等待时间、常规公交是否有座位、定制公交票价折扣和绕行比率都具有偏好异质性;考虑异质性,为保障较稳定的满座率,需至少提供12%的票价折扣才能抵消约90%出行者对绕行10%路径的认知负效用。因此运营商在提供多车型、多模式出行服务的基础上,需要寻找定制公交需求响应式站点和线路调整与车费之间的平衡点。Demand-response strategies for customized buses(CBs)typically treat different passengers homogeneously,ignoring the heterogeneity among passengers in their choice preferences.To gain further insight into people's choice behavior in CBs and explore the influence of latent variables,this study combined the characteristics of CB operation and latent variables reflecting convenience,comfort,and reliability into a mixed logit model to form a hybrid choice model.A survey was conducted on 30 customized bus routes in Dalian to study the operational characteristics of CBs and to quantitatively analyze the impact of various attributes on CB choice behaviors using empirical data.The results show that CBs are more attractive to middle-aged and young women with middle-to-high incomes.Reliability and traditional variables such as travel time have an equally important impact on choice,and the utility of average cognitive reliability is equivalent to reducing travel time by 6.15 min.The probability of choosing CBs increases by 1.09 times for every increase in the perceived reliability evaluation level.The hybrid choice model has a higher goodness-of-fit than the traditional logit model,and the prediction results are more robust.Travelers have heterogeneous preferences for travel time,waiting time,seat availability on regular buses,discounts on CB fares,and detour rates.To ensure a stable full-load rate,considering heterogeneity,at least a 12%discount on fares is required to offset the perceived negative utility,due to 10%route detours,of approximately 90%of the travelers.Therefore,to provide multi-vehicle types and multimodal travel services,operators must determine a balance point between demand-responsive CB stops and route and fare adjustments.

关 键 词：交通工程 出行方式选择 混合选择模型 定制公交 潜变量 

分 类 号：U491.1[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]