西安市灞桥区乙型病毒性肝炎感染时间变化特征及趋势预测  

Time characteristics and trend prediction of hepatitis B infection in Baqiao Distract,Xian City

作　　者：宋淳 范慧娟 张静瑜 SONG Chun;FAN Huijuan;ZHANG Jingyu(The Second Affiliated Hospital of Air Force Military Medical University,Xi′an,Shaanxi 710038,China)

机构地区：[1]空军军医大学第二附属医院,陕西西安710038

出　　处：《公共卫生与预防医学》2024年第4期129-132,共4页Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine

摘　　要：目的 分析西安市灞桥区乙肝感染时间变化特征,采用ARIMA模型预测未来1年发病趋势,为乙肝防控策略调整做出理论指导。方法 收集2018—2023年空军军医大学第二附属医院收治乙肝病例7 173例作为研究对象,采用年度变化百分比(APC)分析1年乙肝感染时间变化特征,运用ARIMA最优模型对2024年发病率进行预测。结果 西安市灞桥区2018—2023年乙肝发病粗率51.30/10万,标化发病率为42.11/10万,6年发病率呈现上升趋势(APC=8.71%,95%CI:3.29%~9.61%,P<0.05)。χ^(2)结果显示,乙肝标化发病率男性为女性的1.51倍,且以30~45岁年龄段发病率最高。预测结果显示,2024年乙肝发病例数为1 590例,较2023年(1 621例)下降1.91%。结论 西安市灞桥区乙肝感染总体呈上升趋势,ARIMA可用于该类传染病预测,为该病预防做出科学指导。Objective To analyze the characteristics of hepatitis B infection time in Baqiao Distract of Xian City,predict the incidence trend of hepatitis B in the next years with ARIMA model,and provide theoretical guidance for the adjustment of hepatitis B prevention and control strategies.Methods A total of 7 173 cases of hepatitis B in our hospital from 2018 to 2023 were collected as subjects,the annual percentage of change(APC) was used to analyze the characteristics of time of hepatitis B infection in the next years,and the ARIMA optimal model was used to predict the incidence rate in 2024.Results The gross incidence of hepatitis B in Baqiao Distract of Xian City from 2018 to 2023 was 51.30 per 100 000,and the standardized incidence rate was 42.11 per 100 000.The six-year incidence rate showed an upward trend(APC=8.71%,95% CI:3.29%-9.61%,P<0.05).Chi square results showed that the standardized incidence rate of hepatitis B in men is 1.51 times than women,and the incidence rate of hepatitis B in the 30-45 age group was the highest.The prediction results showed that the number of hepatitis B cases in 2024 was 1590,which was 1.91% lower than that in 2023(1 621 cases).Conclusion The infection of hepatitis B is on the rise in Baqiao Distract of Xian City,ARIMA can be used to predict this kind of infectious disease and provide scientific guidance for the prevention of this disease.

关 键 词：乙肝 ARIMA模型 预测 

分 类 号：R181[医药卫生—流行病学]