基于N-K-FRAM的空中交通运行安全风险耦合机制  

Coupling mechanism of air traffic operation safety risk based on N-K-FRAM

作　　者：李一可 张洪海[1,2] 石宗北 周锦伦 LI Yike;ZHANG Honghai;SHI Zongbei;ZHOU Jinlun(College of Civil Aviation,Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,Nanjing Jiangsu 211106,China;Key Laboratory of National Air Traffic Control Flight Flow Management Technology,Nanjing Jiangsu 211106,China)

机构地区：[1]南京航空航天大学民航学院,江苏南京211106 [2]国家空管飞行流量管理技术重点实验室,江苏南京211106

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2024年第5期175-185,共11页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助(U2133207);中国工业和信息化部民用飞机专项科研(MJZ1-7N22)。

摘　　要：为探究空中交通运行安全风险耦合演化特征,厘清基于N-K模型与功能共振分析方法(FRAM)相结合的空中交通运行系统耦合变异形成机制,首先,收集不安全事件文本数据,归纳事件中的风险因素并归类,得到其历史发生频率以及风险因素之间的耦合关系;其次,利用N-K模型求解运行风险因素间的耦合度值;然后,结合输出时间与精度,定量评估FRAM功能模块的可变性,分析空中交通运行安全风险耦合机制;最后,分别以区域导航(RNAV)进近不安全事件与偏离航路不安全事件为例,分析其安全风险。结果表明:基于N-K-FRAM的风险耦合机制能够合理有效地定量计算功能模块间的变异性,弱化了传统分析方法对主观意识的依赖性,分析结果更为客观科学。In order to explore the coupled evolution mechanism of air traffic operation safety risk,clarify the mechanism of coupling and mutation formation in air traffic operation systems based on a combination of the N-K model and FRAM.Firstly,textual data on unsafe incidents was collected.The risk factors involved were categorized,and their historical frequency of occurrence and the coupling relationship between risk factors were obtained.Secondly,the N-K model was used to solve the coupling degree values between air traffic operational risk factors.Finally,based on the output time and accuracy,the variability of the FRAM functional module was quantitatively evaluated,analyzing the coupling mechanism of air traffic operational safety risks,and safety risk analysis was conducted using regional area navigation(RNAV)approach unsafe events and deviation route unsafe events as examples.The results indicate that the evaluation method based on improved FRAM can quantitatively calculate the variability between functional modules in a reasonable and effective manner,weaken the dependence of traditional analysis methods on subjective consciousness,and make the analysis results more objective and scientific.

关 键 词：空中交通运行 安全风险耦合 N-K模型 功能共振分析方法(FRAM) 不安全事件 

分 类 号：X949[环境科学与工程—安全科学]