中国服装出口特征及预测  

Characteristics and Forecast of China's Garment Export

作　　者：罗恣懿 刘佳锴 李敏[1,2] LUO Ziyi;LIU Jiakai;LI Min(College of Fashion and Design,Donghua University,Shanghai 200051,China;Key Laboratory of Clothing Design and Technology,Ministry of Education,Donghua University,Shanghai 200051,China)

机构地区：[1]东华大学服装与艺术设计学院,上海200051 [2]东华大学现代服装设计与技术教育部重点实验室,上海200051

出　　处：《服装学报》2024年第3期274-282,共9页Journal of Clothing Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(72372022)

摘　　要：为探究中国服装出口特征与发展趋势,以2014—2022年中国服装出口额为基础数据,基于灰色理论和马尔科夫理论,先后建立GM(1,1)模型与MCGM(1,1)修正模型,并检验模型的准确性,以探讨灰色-马尔科夫模型在服装出口预测领域的应用效果。研究发现,对GM(1,1)模型进行马尔科夫校正后,预测平均相对误差从0.0479下降至0.0112,平均方差比误差和小概率误差精确等级均由“合格”提升到了“优”,模型精度显著提高,优化仿真曲线接近实际变化曲线,表明MCGM(1,1)修正模型在服装出口预测领域表现优越。运用灰色-马尔科夫模型对中国2023—2027年服装出口额进行预测,显示未来5年中国服装出口呈平稳的波动发展态势。为巩固和加强中国服装出口的竞争力,提出企业需开拓新兴市场、优化生产结构、赋能服装产品、加强融通合作,从而实现中国服装出口企业的可持续发展。To explore the characteristics and development trend of China's garment export,the GM(1,1)Model and MCGM(1,1)Modified Model were established based on Grey Theory and Markov Theory using the data of China's garment export from 2014 to 2022.The accuracy of the model was tested to explore the application effect of the Grey-Markov Model in the field of garment export forecasting.The results show that after correcting GM(1,1)Model by Markov chain,the average relative error of prediction decreases from 0.0479 to 0.0112,and the accuracy levels of average variance ratio error and small probability error are both improved from"qualified"to"excellent",the prediction accuracy is significantly improved,and the fitting curve of optimized simulation value is close to the actual change curve.It shows that MCGM(1,1)Modified Model is superior in garment export prediction.Then the Grey-Markov Model was used to forecast China's garment export from 2023 to 2027.It shows that China's garment export will offer a stable and fluctuating development trend in the next 5 years.In order to consolidate and strengthen the competitiveness of China's garment export,it put forward some suggestions on developing emerging markets,optimizing production structure,empowering garment products and strengthening integration and cooperation,so as to provide reference for the sustainable development of China's garment export enterprises.

关 键 词：服装出口 出口特征 出口预测 GM(1 1)模型 灰色-马尔科夫模型 

分 类 号：F752.62[经济管理—国际贸易] F768.3[经济管理—产业经济]