基于二维云模型的进近管制系统安全风险评估  

Security Risk Assessment of Approach Control SystemBased on Two-Dimensional Cloud Model

作　　者：张兆宁[1] 史卓晨 ZHANG Zhaoning;SHI Zhuochen(College of Air Traffic Management,Civil Aviation University of China,Tianjin 300300,China)

机构地区：[1]中国民航大学空中交通管理学院,天津300300

出　　处：《重庆交通大学学报（自然科学版）》2024年第7期94-103,共10页Journal of Chongqing Jiaotong University(Natural Science)

基　　金：国家重点研发计划资助项目(2020YFB1600103)。

摘　　要：进近管制系统的安全运行是确保民航运输安全的关键。安全风险评估是风险管理的基础,其可以提升安全风险管理效率,提高系统整体运行的安全性。同时考虑安全风险因素和安全风险事件,从管制员风险、设备风险、气象环境风险、管制环境风险和管理风险等5大方面建立进近管制系统安全风险评估指标体系;通过二维云模型得到某进近管制系统的安全风险等级为Ⅲ级并与一维云模型对比,证明评估模型具有有效性。将组合赋权的方法与改进的层次分析法和CRITIC法作对比分析,结果表明:组合赋权的方法不仅减少了主观随意性,还中和了主客观权重的不足;使用组合赋权-二维云模型进行进近管制系统安全风险评估结果更加准确。The safe operation of the approach control system is essential to ensure the safety of civil aviation transportation.Safety risk assessment forms the foundation of risk management,enhancing the efficiency of safety risk management and overall operational safety of the system.Simultaneously considering safety risk factors and safety risk events,a safety risk assessment index system for approach control system was established from 5 aspects such as controller risk,equipment risk,meteorological environment risk,regulatory environment risk and management risk.By using a two-dimensional cloud model,the safety risk level of a certain approach control system was determined to be level III and compared with a one-dimensional cloud model,which proved the effectiveness of the proposed assessment model.The combination weighting method was compared with the improved analytic hierarchy process method and CRITIC method.The results show that the combination weighting method not only reduces subjective arbitrariness,but also neutralizes the shortcomings of subjective and objective weights.Therefore,using the combination weighting 2D cloud model for approach control system security risk assessment results is more accurate.

关 键 词：交通运输工程 安全风险评估 进近管制系统 指标体系 二维云模型 最小二乘法 

分 类 号：U8[交通运输工程] V951[航空宇航科学技术]