有限理性条件下多层次轨道交通客流拥堵传播机理研究  

Research on the mechanism of passenger flow congestion propagation in multi-level rail transit under bounded rationality

作　　者：贾锦秀 朱昌锋[1] 方劲皓 王傑 成琳娜[1] 何润田 章超 JIA Jinxiu;ZHU Changfeng;FANG Jinhao;WANG Jie;CHENG Linna;HE Runtian;ZHANG Chao(School of Traffic and Transportation,Lanzhou Jiaotong University,Lanzhou 730070,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州交通大学交通运输学院,甘肃兰州730070

出　　处：《铁道科学与工程学报》2024年第6期2206-2216,共11页Journal of Railway Science and Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(72161024);甘肃省教育厅“双一流”科研重点项目(GSSYLXM-04)。

摘　　要：多层次轨道交通系统通过融合不同制式轨道交通,实现了运输能力的灵活配置和互补,但也增加了客流拥堵传播的不确定性,极易出现客流拥堵的跨层级传播。在分析乘客出行有限理性选择行为的基础上,通过引入心理账户理论,建立了广义出行时间账户和拥堵程度账户,并利用改进的价值函数与决策权重函数,刻画了乘客出行路径的综合交易效用。通过考虑出行方式与出行路径双因素,建立了基于巢式Logit-心理账户-累积前景理论(Nested Logit-mental Accountingcumulative Prospect Theory, NL-MA-CPT)的乘客出行方式选择预测模型。在此基础上,通过引入改进的易感-感染-恢复(Upgraded Susceptible-infected-recovered, USIR)模型,提出了考虑乘客选择行为的多层次轨道交通客流拥堵传播模型,并刻画了有限理性条件下的传播速率和恢复速率。最后,以北京市多层次轨道交通为例,验证模型的有效性,并通过灵敏度分析,揭示相关关键因素对拥堵传播的影响机理。研究结果表明:多层次轨道交通网络客流拥堵传播具有显著的波动性和收敛性特征,而传播速率和恢复速率直接影响拥堵传播的强度及影响范围,且随着网络层数的增加,乘客出行选择决策的有限理性特征对拥堵传播的影响更加显著。本研究可为运营企业制定客流拥堵控制策略提供一定的理论参考依据。The multi-level rail transit system achieves flexible allocation and complementation of transportation capacity by integrating different modes of rail transit.However,it also increases the uncertainty of passenger flow congestion propagation,which is prone to cross-level propagation of passenger flow congestion.Based on the analysis of passengers’bounded rational choice behavior,the generalized travel time account and congestion degree account were established by introducing the mental accounting theory,and the comprehensive transaction utility of passengers’travel path was described by using the improved value function and decision weight function.By considering the dual factors of travel mode and travel route,a passenger travel mode choice prediction model based on Nested Logit-Mental Accounting-Cumulative Prospect Theory(NL-MA-CPT)was established.On this basis,by introducing the Upgraded Susceptible-Infected-Recovered(USIR)model,a multi-level rail transit passenger flow congestion propagation model considering passenger choice behavior was proposed,and the propagation rate and recovery rate under bounded rationality were characterized.Finally,the Beijing’s multi-level rail transit was taken as an example.The effectiveness of the model was verified,and the impact mechanism of relevant key factors on congestion propagation was revealed through sensitivity analysis.The results show that the congestion propagation of passenger flow in multi-level rail transit network has significant volatility and convergence characteristics,and the propagation rate and recovery rate directly affect the intensity and influence range of congestion propagation.With the increase of network layers,the bounded rationality of passenger travel choice decision has a more significant impact on congestion propagation.This study can provide a theoretical reference for operating enterprises to formulate passenger flow congestion control strategies.

关 键 词：多层次轨道交通 客流拥堵传播 有限理性 累积前景理论 心理账户理论 USIR模型 

分 类 号：U291.69[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]