风险冲击与产业链供应链重构研究前沿与展望  

Fronts and Prospects of Research on Risk Shocks,Industrial Chain and Supply Chain Restructuring

作　　者：谢畅 马弘[1] Xie Chang;Ma Hong(School of Economics and Management,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China)

机构地区：[1]清华大学经济管理学院,北京100084

出　　处：《当代经济管理》2024年第8期53-63,共11页Contemporary Economic Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“大国竞争背景下关键领域产业链供应链重构的风险评估与对策研究”(23&ZD046);国家自然科学基金项目“贸易风险识别、对宏观经济影响评估与复杂联动”(72341016)。

摘　　要：维护全球产业链供应链韧性和稳定是推动世界经济发展的重要保障。面对各种可以预见和难以预见的风险冲击,全球产业链供应链格局加速重构。对此,国际贸易理论和经济政策评估领域涌现了大量研究。文章全面介绍前沿研究的基本框架、研究方法和局限性,将现有文献归纳为四类:评估经济风险和冲击的可能性、冲击前的供应链优化、冲击后的供应链应对、冲击后的政策应对。针对未来的研究方向,文章提出了三方面的展望:建立对重大风险事件的识别和概率认知、在全球产业链韧性评估中区分所有制、构建更细致的多区域投入产出表。为了提升产业链供应链安全水平,需要建立动态的目标;推动中国企业走出去,加强国际合作;加快解决关键核心技术“卡脖子”问题,正确把握关键环节。Maintaining the resilience and stability of the global industrial and supply chains is crucial for fostering the development of the world economy.In the face of various foreseeable and unforeseeable risk shocks,these chains have experienced significant restructuring.This shift has sparked a surge in research within the realms of international trade theory and economic policy evaluation.This paper provides a comprehensive review of recent studies,covering the fundamental framework,research methodologies,and limitations.It summarizes the literature into four categories:assessing economic risks,pre-shock supply chain optimization,post-shock supply chain response,and post-shock policy response.Moreover,this paper suggests three future research directions:identifying major risk events and their probability distributions;differentiating ownership in the assessment of global supply chain resilience;and constructing a more detailed multi-regional input-output table.To improve the security of industrial and supply chains,it recommends three policy measures:establishing dynamic policy objectives;encouraging Chinese companies to expand globally and enhance global cooperation;and hastening the resolution of the“bottleneck”issues in critical technologies.

关 键 词：经济风险评估 产业链重构 供应链韧性 产业安全 

分 类 号：F274[经济管理—企业管理]