数字普惠金融与贫困脆弱性:“普及”抑或“惠及”?——来自可解释机器学习的证据  

Digital Inclusive Finance and Poverty Vulnerability:“Popularizing”or“Benefiting”?—Evidence from Explainable Machine Learning

作　　者：薛秋童 唐攀[2] Xue Qiutong;Tang Pan(School of Applied Economics,Guizhou University of Finance and Economics;School of Economics and Management,Southeast University)

机构地区：[1]贵州财经大学应用经济学院 [2]东南大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《国际金融研究》2024年第6期18-29,共12页Studies of International Finance

基　　金：贵州省高校人文社会科学研究项目“贵州数字金融创新发展研究”(2024RW95)资助。

摘　　要：我国脱贫攻坚战已取得全面胜利,然而如何巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果仍是当前及今后需要面对的重要挑战。本文采用中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据与数字普惠金融指标,通过理论与实证分析全面讨论了数字普惠金融与贫困脆弱性的关系,采用机器学习方法对数字普惠金融的“普及”和“惠及”作用进行了深入探讨。研究发现:数字普惠金融在总体上能减缓家庭贫困脆弱性的发生,通过分析覆盖广度、使用深度与贫困脆弱性间的关系发现,相较于“普及”效果而言,数字普惠金融发展带来的“惠及”效果更为突出。进一步通过异质性分析发现,“普及”作用在数字化程度较高地区的效果更好,而“惠及”作用在数字化程度较低地区效果更好。相较于沿海地区的青年群体而言,“普及”作用对沿海地区中老年群体的效果更好,而“惠及”作用则会对非沿海地区中老年群体效果更好。上述结论为理解数字普惠金融发展以及实现我国共同富裕目标提供了现实依据和政策启示。This paper uses the China Family Tracking Survey(CFPS) and digital financial inclusion indicators to try toclarify the intrinsic relationship between digital financial inclusion and poverty vulnerability through theory and empirical evidence,while using the machine learning models to conduct in-depth exploration on the“popularizing”and“benefiting”roleof digital financial inclusion.The study finds that digital inclusive finance can reduce the occurrence of household poverty vulnerability in general.Meanwhile, by analyzing the relationship between and among the breadth of coverage, the depth of use and poverty vulnerability,it is found that the“benefiting”effect brought about by the development of digital inclusive finance is more prominentthan the“popularizing”effect. Heterogeneity analysis further reveals that the“popularizing”effect is more effective in moredigitized areas, while the“benefiting”effect is more effective in less digitized areas. It's also found that the“popularizing”effect is more prominent for the middle-aged and old-aged groups than the youth group in coastal areas, while the“benefiting”effect is more pronounced for the middle-aged and old-aged groups in non-coastal areas.Based on the above-mentioned conclusions as well as the latest development of digital inclusive finance in China, this paperputs forward the following policy recommendations: accelerate the high-quality development of digital inclusive finance inthe light of the status of financial inclusion;digital inclusive financial resources should be actively promoted to tilt towards lessdeveloped regions;the allocation of digital inclusive financial resources needs to be optimized to realize the role of financialpoverty alleviation;and the guiding role of financial policies needs to be strengthened to achieve China's common prosperitygoal.

关 键 词：数字普惠金融 贫困脆弱性 共同富裕 机器学习 

分 类 号：F830[经济管理—金融学]