增产与减碳能否兼得?——粮食主产区设立的农业碳减排效应研究  

Concurrent Achievements of Production Increase and Carbon Reduction:A Study of Agricultural Carbon Emission Reduction Effect of Establishment of Major Grain Production Areas

作　　者：田红宇[1] 孟娜娜 覃朝晖[1] TIAN Hong-yu;MENG Na-na;QIN Zhao-hui

机构地区：[1]三峡大学经济与管理学院,湖北宜昌443002

出　　处：《三峡大学学报（人文社会科学版）》2024年第4期50-60,116,共12页Journal of China Three Gorges University(Humanities & Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“数字赋能脱贫民族地区产业链融合的机制与路径研究”(22BMZ011)。

摘　　要：在粮食安全底线和“双碳”任务双重压力下,准确把握粮食增产政策与农业碳排放的关系,对于推进农业高质量发展具有重要意义。把设立粮食主产区视为一项外生政策干预的准自然实验,运用双重差分法和中介效应模型,考察粮食主产区设立对农业碳排放的影响及其作用机制。研究发现:粮食主产区设立在筑牢粮食安全底线的同时,还对粮食种植环节的农业碳排放具有显著的削减效应,被划定为主产区使得该省份粮食生产碳排放强度和密度分别下降了2.61%和3.58%,而且这一碳排放削减效应表现出逐渐增强的长期动态特征。异质性检验发现,粮食主产区设立对不同来源碳排放的削减效应存在明显差异,对化学制品类排放源削减作用最大,土地利用类排放源次之,化石燃料类排放源不明显。作用机制分析证明,农作物种植结构优化的“结构效应”、粮食种植规模扩大的“规模效应”和农业技术进步的“技术效应”,是粮食主产区设立削减农业碳排放的重要机制,三种效应联合可以解释碳排放削减总效应的64%左右。Under the dual pressures of food security and“Double-Carbon”goal,it is important to have an accurate understanding of the relationship between food production increase policies and agricultural carbon emissions for the achievement of high-quality agricultural development.The article based on the establishment of major grain production areas as a quasi-natural experiment of exogenous policy intervention examines the impact of production-increasing policies,including the establishment of major grain producing areas,on agricultural carbon emissions and analyzes its mechanism by using the Difference-in-Differences Method and the Intermediary Effect Model.The study shows that,the establishment of the major grain production areas has a significant effect on the reduction of agricultural carbon emissions from grain cultivation while building a solid bottom line for food security,and that the establishment of major production areas resulted in the reduction of the intensity and density of carbon emissions from grain production in the province by 2.61%and 3.58%,respectively,and that the carbon emission reduction effect shows a long-term dynamic characteristic of gradual increase.The heterogeneity test shows that there are obvious differences in the reduction effect of carbon emissions from different sources of the establishment of the major grain production areas,with the greatest reduction effect on the emission sources of chemicals,followed by those of land use,and not obvious on those of fossil fuels.The analysis of the mechanism proves that the“structural effect”of the optimization of crop cultivation structure,the“scale effect”of the expansion of grain cultivation scale and the“technological effect”of the progress of agricultural technology are the most important factors in the reduction of agricultural carbon emissions.The“structural effect”of the optimization of crop cultivation structure,the“scale effect”of the enlargement of grain cultivation scale and the“technological effect”of agric

关 键 词：粮食主产区设立 农业碳排放 结构效应 规模效应 技术效应 

分 类 号：F320[经济管理—产业经济] X592[环境科学与工程—环境工程]