自适应Ⅱ型逐步截尾双应力恒加试验统计分析  

Statistical analysis of double stress accelerated life testing under adaptive type-Ⅱprogressive censoring

作　　者：杨天乐 李华聪[1] 符江锋[1] YANG Tianle;LI Huacong;FU Jiangfeng(School of Power and Energy,Northwestern Polytechnical University,Xi'an 710072,China)

机构地区：[1]西北工业大学动力与能源学院,陕西西安710072

出　　处：《西北工业大学学报》2024年第3期487-497,共11页Journal of Northwestern Polytechnical University

基　　金：国家科技重大专项(J2019-V-0016-0111)资助。

摘　　要：针对传统加速寿命试验仅考虑单一加速应力和单一失效模式的问题,研究寿命服从Weibull分布且失效模式相互独立的竞争失效产品,在自适应Ⅱ型逐步截尾下建立双应力恒加试验的统计分析方法。通过Newton-Raphson迭代和渐进似然理论得到未知参数的极大似然估计和渐进置信区间。采用Gibbs抽样与M-H抽样混合算法获得参数的Bayes估计并基于MC方法构建HPD可信区间。数值模拟结果表明所提的方法具有良好的统计推断性能且失效样本数和试验时间对估计效果有显著影响。Aiming at the traditional accelerated life test only considering the single stress and single failure cause,the inference method of double stress accelerated competing risks data is studied under the adaptive type-Ⅱprogressively censored and the life of test units follow Weibull distribution.The maximum likelihood estimations and the asymptotic confidence intervals of unknown parameters are obtained by using the Newton-Raphson iteration and asymptotic likelihood theory.A Gibbs sampling combining with Metropolis-Hasting algorithm method is developed to obtain Bayes estimations,and the Monte Carlo method is employed to construct the HPD credible intervals.The simulated results show that the present method has good statistical inference performance,meanwhile the failure sample size and the expected experimentation time have significant effect on the estimations.

关 键 词：加速寿命试验 竞争失效 WEIBULL分布 极大似然估计 BAYES估计 

分 类 号：V240.2[航空宇航科学与技术—飞行器设计]